Champions’ League Final Preview : May 9th.

May 19, 2012 //
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Bayern Munich vs. Chelsea.

This final sees two teams who have had largely disappointing domestic seasons brought together for one last chance of redemption. Bayern will be hugely advantaged by the staging of this game on their home turf and start as overwhelming favourites to lift the trophy.


The Key Points :

  • Neither Bayern or Chelsea play with a high defensive line.
  • Bayern’s full backs carry the ball forward more often than Chelsea’s do.
  • Muller turns the ball over at twice the frequency of Kroos and tackles far less and is far less defensive than the suspended Gustavo.
  • Ramires is both Chelsea’s most frequent tackler and dribbler. He is suspended as is Terry, Ivanovic and Meireles.
  • Badstuber and Alaba will be absent from Bayern’s defence.
  • Ribery is fouled at a greater frequency than Real Madrid’s Ronaldo.
  • Drogba has scored 5 goals from 22 shots in the Champions’ League this season. Gomez has 12 goals from 45 efforts.

It is very probable that Bayern will have the greater share of possession in this contest but this will largely be an open game. They largely controlled the midfield in their semi-final games against Real Madrid but field a more attacking line-up on this occasion. In contrast, Chelsea have been content to concede possession in the Champions’ League this season. Bertrand has been drafted in so Cole will not have to face Robben on his own. Bertrand’s energy and defensive play will offset some of the loss brought about by Ramires’ suspension but Chelsea will miss his attacking verve. The odds compilers are expecting a game of goal chances and given that there will be such prolific strikers on the field, a price approaching evens about over 2.5 goals is a viable proposition.

Recommended bet :

Back Gomez (EW) First goalscorer.

Back over 2.5 goals.

 

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Categories Champions League, Football, Uncategorized

Premier League Preview : May 13th.

May 13, 2012 //
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Everton vs. Newcastle United.

On the face of it Newcastle have far more to play for in this fixture but Everton will have their own motivation. They currently lead their city rivals Liverpool by a point in the standings and will be eager to finish the season ahead of them. Newcastle are not in the Champions’ League places as things stand and have to win this last game and hope that other results go their way.

The key points :

  • Both sides play with a high defensive line, especially Newcastle.
  • Neither set of full backs are used much in attack. Baines of Everton is the exception.
  • Newcastle’s midfielders and forwards are more likely to be dispossessed or turnover the ball than Everton’s.
  • Pienaar is Everton’s least possession conscious player.
  • Newcastle tackle at a greater frequency than Everton.
  • Cisse has scored 13 goals from 35 attempts for Newcastle, while Jelavic has 8 from 34 shots for Everton.

Possession of the ball is likely to change often throughout this game. Newcastle probably give the ball up frequently because they are usually on the front foot looking to attack. Consequently there will be space for Everton’s forwards to operate in. For a team that had a reputation for being uncreative, Everton have scored at least 2 goals in 7 of their last 10 games. Given the calibre of the forward players on display, goals are likely in this game.

Recommended bet :

Back over 2.5 goals.

Back Jelavic to score anytime.

Back Cisse to score anytime.

Sunderland vs. Manchester United.

United remain in the hunt for the title but need Manchester City not to win their game in order to retain the championship. Sunderland have found themselves in the comfort zone of mid-table safety for a few weeks now but will be eager to perform well in their last home fixture of the season.

The key points :

  • Neither team looks to play the offside trap often.
  • United’s Evra will be the most forward thinking defender on the field.
  • United pass the ball more frequently and more accurately than Sunderland.
  • Both teams tackle with the same frequency and the wider players compete well for possession.
  • Rooney is likely to have twice as many efforts at goal than any other United player.
  • Larsson is virtually twice as efficient at converting shots into goals as any other Sunderland player.

This is likely to be scrappy game with only United able to control possession for long periods but if they are motivated Sunderland will compete fiercely in the midfield area. United are likely to have chances to score because there is little motivation for Sunderland to play defensively.

Recommended bet :

Back Rooney (EW) to be first goalscorer.

Categories Uncategorized

F.A. Cup Final Preview : May 5th.

May 5, 2012 //
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Chelsea vs. Liverpool.

By the end of the season teams and players have fairly well established patterns and behaviours and only if one team finds themselves practically out of the game would things radically change tactically. Neither side pushes up their central defenders too far forward as neither set of central defenders are renowned for possessing a great deal of pace. They would however relish the challenge of duelling for high balls into the box and once they are facing away from their own goal they would feel comfortable enough. There is a contrast in the manner in which the teams’ fullbacks have been employed this season. Enrique and Johnson are the second and third most frequent ball carriers in the Liverpool squad following Suarez and are clearly an intergral part of Liverpool’s attacking strategy. The Chelsea fullbacks have been far more hesistant to advance with the ball but this probably has more to do with the type of player in front of them.

Ramires is the player that Chelsea look to to break upfield on the counterattack and his role will be to make inroads against the less mobile quarters of Liverpool’s midfield. Juan Mata has been the hub of much Chelsea’s creativity this season and his passing vision is essential. He will obviously look to find Drogba higher up the field and this will allow other players to be brought into the attack. It is noticeable that Chelsea’s attacking players have not been too careful with possession this season. For Champions’ League finalists they have a high rate of being dispossessed and of giving up turnovers. The Chelsea backline will have to maintain it’s discipline and not get drawn too far forward into the midfield action.

Stewart Downing has been the focus of criticism in connection with the lack of output from Liverpool’s offensive players. He has however maintained a very decent level of ball retention and rarely gives the ball away. The same can be said for Bellamy, while in contrast Suarez is often dispossessed. But there is a balance and Suarez is the player most likely to dribble at the opposition and pull them out of their defensive shape. There is the sense that neither team has the capability to truely dominate this encounter and fully close the game out should they take the lead. Chelsea have managed the feat of hanging onto slender leads throughout their Champions’ League campaign but they have been aided by some woeful finishing by their opposition. The antedote to having to absorb large amounts of pressure is to continue attacking with the hope of extending the lead. With neither team likely to bring the game to a standstill the later stages could be frenetic.

Recommended bet :

Back 2nd half as the half with most goals.

Back 2nd half as the half with most corners.

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Categories FA Cup, Football, Uncategorized

Premier League Preview : May 5th.

May 5, 2012 //
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Arsenal vs. Norwich City.

Norwich pushed up their back four in their home fixture against Liverpool and were duely punished on the counterattack and were well beaten in the end. Whilst having scored plenty of goals this season, Norwich have also been in the habit of leaking them aswell. A cavalier attitude against an Arsenal team still looking to seal Champions’ League qualification could bring about further punishment to the visitors’ goal difference. Van Persie will again lead the line and will probably be doubled up on allowing some of Arsenal’s other players the space in which to have a sight at goal. As is typical, it can be expected that Vermaelen will make his way forward towards the opposition goal area. Last week in the away game at Stoke he had at least one worthwhile effort at goal and nearly took a defender’s arm off in the process. Arsenal are likely to dominate possession in this home game more comfortably than was the case at Stoke and as a result Vermaelen should again be able to fashion a decent scoring opportunity.

Recommended bet : Back Vermaelen to score anytime.

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Categories Football, Premier League

Premier League Preview : April 28th.

April 28, 2012 //
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Stoke vs. Arsenal.

This fixture is always perceived as a clash or styles but as time goes on this assumption is less accurate. Stoke are an upwardly mobile and progressive club and the manager has tailored a team to match each of their goals. The current target is a top ten table finish and the management will be fully aware that huff and puff and long ball football isn’t the route to this end. The carrot of Champions’ League football has been an excellent motivation in recent weeks for the better teams in the division who are out of contention for the title. Arsenal have made an excellent recovery to find themselves in third place but the job isn’t quite done yet and they will have to remain focussed for the last three games of the season. Unfortunately they travel to the Britannia Stadium without two of their main goalscorers in Walcott and Arteta. Both players have been major contributors to Arsenal’s all round play over the past few months and Arteta will be particularly missed. Arsenal probably didn’t deserve much more than the draw they achieved against Chelsea last Saturday. They had the chances to win the game but the overall performance lacked conviction. In mitigation Chelsea were in a rehearsed defensive mindset which was to pay dividends later on in the week and Stoke will have to perform exceptionally well to match Chelsea’s defensive discipline.

If Arsenal play reasonably well they will have chances to score. Stoke’s downfall this season appears to be their lack of ability to retain possession. Only two of their first team regulars have a pass success percentage of over 80 % while Norwich for example can boast of having at least four regulars who exceed the 80 % mark. Stoke will attempt to put Arsenal under pressure at set pieces and while they will never be division leaders at defending such situations, Arsenal have improved in this area of late. Stoke will also play a physical game against Arsenal. The home side adopted this approach for the visit of Man. City recently and only a long distance strike from Yaya Toure denied them all three points. Van Persie is likely to be heavily man-marked where ever he goes and he is often doubled up on. This goes some way to explain why he is dispossessed so often, so it will be up to Arsenal’s other attackers to benefit from the space created.

In terms of the outright result this contest is a hard one to call. Arsenal are the better team but they are both away from home and missing key personnel. Stoke on the otherhand will have to play an exceptional possession game on their behalf to exert suitable pressure on the visitors. Arsenal’s second most prolific goalscorer in this afternoon’s starting eleven is Vermaelen. It is very likely that he’ll have an opportunity to score and seeing as he converts 18 % of his efforts, 6-1 in the anytime goalscorer market is a fair proposition if he only sees one goalscoring opportunity throughout the whole game.

Recommended bet : Back Vermaelen to score anytime.

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Categories Football, Premier League, Uncategorized

Champions League Preview : April 25th

April 25, 2012 //
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Real Madrid vs. Bayern Munich

This tie remains finely poised and more so since Madrid conceded a late goal in Munich in the first leg. Had Bayern had to chase the game in Madrid, the Spanish team would have had the game set up nicely for them. As it stands it is Madrid that will have to make the running and be wary of Bayern’s considerable counter-attack threat. It is fascinating to analyse both teams’ strengths and weaknesses as neither is yet the finished article in terms of a team that can dominate European football for the foreseeable future. Much of Madrid’s attack will focus on Ronaldo and his ability to drive inside off the left wing towards Bayern’s central defence. Lahm handled the Portuguese striker adequately in the first leg but it is likely that Madrid will attack in greater force down that left side. The flanks are at the same time Madrid’s strength and their weakness. Mourinho clearly doesn’t entirely trust Marcelo in a defensive capacity and must have been furious to see Coentrao go to ground late on in Munich to allow Lahm to cross for the winning goal. The danger for Madrid is that if the fullback overlaps, Robben will be left unattended and there will be times when his transition at pace into the opposition half will make him uncatchable. Arbeloa on the right flank is the steadier defender but finds himself in a pace mis-match with Ribery. It was no surprise to see Ribery grounded on so many occasions in the first leg, he draws more fouls on average than any Madrid player and he draws them at a higher rate in European games than he does domestically.

The key area where Bayern dominated the game in the first leg was in midfield where they had both a mobility and power advantage. Di Maria is an admirable player but it was never the intention that he would play in central midfield. It can be expected that Gomez will tackle back often as he did last week putting Alonso and Khedira under pressure but where the Madrid pairing really feel the heat is when they are chasing back facing their own goal. The Gustavo, Schweinsteiger axis provides excellent protection for the back four of Bayern and at the same time link well with Ribery. This is the key area for Bayern as if the central defence can be adequately shielded, Madrid will have to be at their most resourceful in order to find a route to goal. The home side can be expected to push up onto Schweinsteiger as he appears to be the defensive midfielder most frequently dispossessed. In terms of the outright result this remains a contest that is hard to predict but there are some scenarios that are very possible. Madrid only require one goal to progress and having taken the lead they are likely to retreat towards their own goal knowing that Ronaldo can cause plenty of damage on the counter-attack. Also, Ozil will be withdrawn fairly rapidly. Bayern are well set up defensively to repel Madrid for a large period of the game and will seek to counter-attack themselves. Unless Bayern increase their lead early on in the game there may not be the goals in this game as expected.

Recommended bet : Back Under 3.5 goals.

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Categories Champions League, Football

Champions League Preview : April 24th

April 24, 2012 //
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Barcelona vs. Chelsea

This second leg of the Champions’ League semi-final will follow the pattern of the first leg where Barcelona will dominate possession. Only poor finishing at Stamford Bridge allowed Chelsea to escape with a slender lead and head into the second leg with their hopes of a final appearance in tact. Barcelona launched wave after wave of attack against the left side of Chelsea’s defence last Wednesday night, ironically into the area where Chelsea are probably defensively strongest. Cole is at least as good a player as Alves and Ramires offers solid assistance in supporting his fullback. His energy helped negate the treat of Sanchez on the same flank and he will be utilised to same effect at the Camp Nou.

Chelsea predictably congested the central areas denying space to Messi, Xavi and Fabregas where they could. The right hand side of Chelsea’s defence is where they are weakest but Barcelona were unable to effectively benefit from this situation in the first leg. In order to retain possession Iniesta preferred to push inside rather than take on Ivanovic to the outside. Mata is not as good as a defender as Ramires and it was surprising that the Champions didn’t exploit the situation further. David Villa and Eric Abidal are clearly being missed as when they play there is scope for the ball to be played to either side of the fullback allowing Abidal to form an overlap or for Villa to cut from the outside to the inside of the defender and head towards goal. Chelsea will again pack the central areas and rely on Drogba and support from Ramires and Mata to sneak a second goal on the break.

Overall, the away side will expect to have to soak up a huge amount of pressure from Barcelona in the central areas. With a partisan crowd and unrelenting attacks it’s hard to imagine that the Chelsea holding midfielders will not escape the evening without picking up a yellow card between them. In terms of the betting on the teams to qualify for the final, Chelsea appear to be very short at 7/4 when ultimately they will probably have to rely on Barcelona being as inept in front of goal as they were last week. There is sure to be plenty of Barcelona pressure but whether it will tell in terms of goals or not is another question.

Recommended bets :

Back Mikel, Meireles and Lampard to be shown a card.

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Categories Champions League, Football

Premier League Preview : April 22nd

April 21, 2012 //
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Manchester United vs. Everton

The home team clearly has the more motivation to win this game as they remain in the thick of the race for the championship. Everton will be bitterly disappointed following last weekend’s cup semi final defeat. Without the extraneous circumstances United would still be favourites to win this contest. Everton have steadily improved towards the later part of the season but United have gone on a charge that has seen them win nine of their last ten league games. Their success has been largely built on a settled back four and the excellent form of Rooney and Valencia. There is nothing to suggest that the trend will not continue especially in this game in front of their own crowd. Everton have to cope with the significant loss of Leighton Baines. Everton have attacked extensively down their left flank and no other player has played as many important balls forward as Baines has for the team this season. Phil Neville will fill in at left back and while he is a solid defender it is unlikely that he will provide the same forward impetus as his absent team mate. United have a variety of attacking options at their disposal but they will seek to exploit the unfamiliarity on Everton’s left side through Valencia. In terms of a pace match up, the United player has the advantage and it appears that Valencia stands up and gets on with it. He draws fouls from the opposition at a third of the rate that Young does and only a handful of United players tackle as proficiently as the Ecuadorian. It is predictable that United will dominate possession in this game and the odds for them to come out on top in the corners won markets are very short. This is a game that United should take three points from eventhough it is likely that they will have to grind the result out. There is not the sense beforehand that there is a great deal of needle between the two teams and neither have proven to be particularly indisciplined. Referee Mike Jones has issued less than four cards a game on average this season whilst officiating and with the strong flow of player traffic between Old Trafford and Goodison in recent times it is unlikely that the two teams will have a go at each other.

Recommended bet : Back less than 4.5 cards.

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Categories Football, Premier League

Premier League Preview : April 21st

April 21, 2012 //
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Arsenal vs. Chelsea

Both teams are missing influential players for this vital league encounter. The conjecture is extensive as to who will be most affected by the absences. Arsenal will undoubtably miss Arteta in the midfield as he has featured consistently amongst the top three Arsenal performers all season in terms of overall contribution. He has served as a brilliant link between Arsenal’s now settled defence and the attacking elements of the team. The home side will obviously have to tinker with their shape in order to compensate for the injured Spanish player and it may well take them a while to find their rhythm. Chelsea’s missing list is altogether more extensive and includes some of their more physically dominating players such as Luiz, Ivanovic and Drogba. With the congested fixture schedule changes have been forced upon Di Matteo, particulary those caused by fatigue. In contrast, Torres will be relatively fresh and his increased sharpness in recent weeks will ensure that Chelsea still carry a credible goal threat. Specifically it is hard to predict where Chelsea will focus their attacking energy. In Arteta’s absence Arsenal are less likely to be as dominant in possession and thus Chelsea will probably have more opportunities in which to attack than if the Spaniard had been playing. Ironically it looks as if Arsenal are equipped to dominate the set piece situations in the match. Terry and Cahill will have to share the responsibility of winning the ball in the air in their own box. This is in contrast to games where Drogba and Ivanovic have been able to share some of the burden and thus provide a virtually inpenetrable aerial defence. It could well be that Drogba’s defensive contribution is more sorely missed than his offensive input. Vermaelen showed as recently as last Monday night in the game against Wigan how he can score with his head given the chance. Santos may appear a little suspect defensively but he wins the majority of his aerial duels and can add further weight to Arsenal’s presence around the opposition penalty area. Much of the outcome of this game could possibly depend on how Chelsea deal with the first few crosses into their box and whether they offer Arsenal any encouragement in the process. Elsewhere on the pitch the teams are set largely to cancel each other out. Arsenal have a preference for attacking down their right flank and Cole’s mobility ensures that Chelsea expend a lot of effort attacking down their left. Set pieces will be essential if there is a stalemate throughout the field. Arsenal are likely to have ample opportunities to register on the scoreboard but in contrast it will take a huge effort from Chelsea to beat Szczensy at least twice.

Recommended bet : Back Arsenal draw no bet.

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Categories Football, Premier League

Champions League Preview : April 17th

April 17, 2012 //
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Bayern Munich vs. Real Madrid

The first instalment of this clash between two of Europe’s footballing giants kicks off tonight at the Allianz Arena. Both sides are packed full of attacking talent and have been entertaining to watch throughout the season. It is interesting to examine the different distributions of workloads within each squad. Only Ronaldo has been fouled at a greater frequency in La Liga games than the Madrid fullbacks, Arbeloa and Marcelo. These two defenders have also been the second and third most active tacklers in the team. Clearly the fullback areas are key action areas as far as Madrid are concerned. There is probably the perception amongst opposing teams that Madrid are vulnerable in these areas due to the lack of defensive effort from the team’s more attacking players. There is some truth in this assumption as far as Ronaldo is concerned as on average he makes a tackle every two La Liga games. It is not surprising that Mourinho has called on the services of the more defensively minded Coentrao. In contrast di Maria tackles at nearly three times the rate of his team mate. Bayern’s Ribery is clearly their ‘go to’ player as he dribbles and is fouled at a significantly higher rate than Arjen Robben. The match up of Ribery against di Maria and Arbeloa will actually suit Madrid seeing as di Maria is very likely to assist his fullback defensively. Coentrao will probably have to face Robben on his own for much of the game and it will not be surprising to see Ribery switch flanks for a period. In an attacking sense the match ups on the flanks also suit Madrid. Ronaldo is the away team’s most effective attacker and he will be up against the inexperienced Alaba.

As far as Bayern are concerned, their fullbacks are fouled at only half the rate of the Madrid fullbacks and they also tackle less. More responsibility appears to rest on the shoulders of the Bayern holding midfielders and it is in this area that the home side will look to dominate. Ribery often drifts inside and attacks through the centre so the Madrid central midfield is likely to have its work cut out. It is hard to believe that the away side’s midfield will escape without a booking between them especially as mobility isn’t their strong suit.

Both sides contain efficient goalscorers and in terms of the result either team could be successful this evening. The likes of Ronaldo and Gomez would only require limited opportunities to score and it will be case of who brings their best form on the night.

Recommended bets :

Back Alonso to be shown a card
Back Pepe to be shown a card.

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