Archives for category: Football
« Older Entries
Newer Entries »

Premier League Preview : April 8th.

April 8, 2012 //
0

Arsenal vs. Man. City

This game is likely to be a highly emotive affair with both sides striving towards their end of season objectives. Both teams have entertained us this season with quality football but their different vulnerabilities may see that they both don’t live up to their own expectations. There will be plenty of frustration bubbling near the surface. The absence of David Silva will hurt City creatively and the line up is now full of robust looking players. Arsenal in contrast don’t appear to lack for imagination in their forward line and they at last look like that they have their first choice back four in regular operation. Mancini even in his own mind is taking a risk in playing Balotelli but his options are limited in the striking department. Despite events seemingly conspiring against City they are not getting beaten too often so a draw at the Emirates is not out of the question. An alternative scenario is that City could lose their discipline and as we saw when Tottenham lost their’s, Arsenal can be merciless. Rather than trying to predict the outright result, it is more straightforward to suggest that the number of bookings is likely to be on the high side. Arsenal is the team against whom most opponents have been shown cards in the entire division. City themselves have been in receipt of four red cards this season so there seems to be an inevitable conclusion that the referee will be busy.

Recommended bet: Back over 4.5 cards in the game.

Tags , , ,
Categories Football, Premier League

Premier League Preview : April 7th.

April 7, 2012 //
0

Sunderland vs. Tottenham

Martin O’Neill would no doubt cast an envious eye over the Spurs squad wishing he could entice players of their calibre to join him in the North East. The likes of Modric, Bale and Van der Vaart could propel a top half of the table team into the top six with their ability. As the teams line out this lunchtime we will know who is the better eleven and Tottenham’s points performance leaves no doubt. Despite being held at 1-1 for a period of the game against Swansea last Sunday, Spurs always looked like taking the three points. Gareth Bale put in another man of the match performance and Adebayor returned to goalscoring form. Confidence has to be at a pretty high level. Sunderland brought credit on themselves with a display that yielded three goals away at Manchester City. It was probably only City’s ability to get themselves back into games that denied Sunderland a deserved away win. With the proper levels of motivation Spurs would be deserved favourites to win this contest. It has been evident that sides have to match Sunderland for effort from the first whistle if they are to beat them. The opening ten minutes of this contest will be very telling. It’s hard to back Sunderland even on some of the handicap markets knowing that Spurs are the better team. It has to be remembered that Arsenal managed to come to the Stadium of Light and win three points showing that the home team remains vulnerable against teams of real quality. Insurance when playing away from home is never a bad thing and Spurs are backable on the draw no bet market.

Recommended bet: Back Tottenham draw no bet.

Norwich vs. Everton

This weekend’s fixture list has to be treated with a degree of caution seeing as some teams probably have more than one eye on upcoming cup semi-finals. Players will be keen to avoid unnecessary injuries and suspensions with season defining matches on the horizon. Norwich have been consistent at Carrow Road and have scored the most goals at home of all the teams in the bottom half of the table. In contrast, Everton’s goalscoring record on the road represents that of a relegation candidate. Everton are an energetic outfit but even they will probably be thinking about keeping something in reserve for their Wembley assignment. That said, it’s hard to imagine that they will play with too much inhibition and Norwich are capable of exploiting any space that they are given. The win market suggests that either team winning and the draw are all very possible outcomes and it is difficult not to agree with this conclusion. Rather than trying to predict the ultimate outcome of this contest the total goals market warrants a closer viewing. Neither team is renowned for clocking up huge scores so a game where exactly 2 or 3 goals are scored is in line with expectation.

Recommended bet : Back exactly 2 or 3 goals in the game.

Tags , , , , ,
Categories Football, Premier League

Champions League Preview : April 4th.

April 4, 2012 //
0

Chelsea vs. Benfica

Understandably it is likely to be a very nervy occasion at Stamford Bridge considering what is at stake for both teams. A semi-final appearance would just about turn Chelsea’s season around and once a team has progressed that far in a competition they start to believe that they have a chance of winning it. The first leg of this tie in Lisbon was highly intriguing and in truth the final result could have been any score. Benefica would naturally be disappointed at not taking anything from the game considering that they had the majority of the efforts at goal. Ultimately they were undone as their paceless defence was left exposed against the fleet of foot Torres and Kalou. The fact remains that the visitors are still very much in the tie and this will not be lost on Chelsea. It is credible that Benfica would be entirely satisfied for the score to remain as it is heading into the final quarter of the game. The Portuguese put Chelsea under plenty of late pressure in Lisbon and will argue they were unlucky not to snatch something. The chances are that both teams will be conservative in their approach early on in the contest and it is hard to see how either would be motivated to chase the game in the first half. At some stage Benfica will have to commit men forward if they remain behind in the tie. Alternatively should they level things up, Chelsea will have to press the pace as they will be keen to avoid the lottery of extra time and penalties. It is difficult to nominate an outright result for the ninety minutes as both teams are fairly evenly matched in many departments. Benefica do appear to have a preference for attacking with the fullbacks and down the flanks. Indeed, this approach led to them winning eight corners in the first leg and it’s likely to be an avenue that they will try again to exploit. Chelsea themselves are not averse to the set piece route to goal given the physical presence of many the squad, so it’s hard to nominate one team over the other in a corners match bet. Given the likely cautious start to the game there are many scenarios that could lead to a greater attacking effort in the second half. It is then that the greater number of corners won is at least as likely as in the first half of the game.

Recommended bet : Back second half as the half with most corners won. (Powers, 10-11).

Tags , , ,
Categories Champions League, Football

Football Preview : April 2nd / 3rd.

April 2, 2012 //
0

Blackburn vs. Man. Utd

In the middle of the season taking three points from this game would have appeared to be straightforward assignment for United but the run-in to the season’s end adds complication. It can be still expected that United will dominate possession and the game in general but when they will make the scoring breakthrough is another question. 4/9 is a short enough price about a team going away from home in search of a win and United will be a much bigger price than this if they have failed to take the lead before the hour mark. The race to four corners market is appealing considering that the bet can be won with United having most of the play but doesn’t rely on them actually scoring. Add the fact that Antonio Valencia will be the main outlet for sending the ball to the flanks when United attack, it is predictable where one of United’s main threats emanate from. The United winger appears to have found his form once again and is a consistent contributor to his team’s goalscoring efforts.

Barcelona vs. Milan

Milan were excellent in defence at the San Siro and frustrated Barcelona sufficiently to grind out a 0-0 draw. The quality of the playing surface in Milan has been highlighted and must have negated against Barcelona’s usual game of high tempo short passing. Ibrahimovic was superb leading the line for Milan but he is likely to be more isolated in the game at the Nou Camp which will reduce his influence on the game. Unless Milan are willing to risk a second man in the forward line to support Ibrahimovic, their attacks are likely to be sporadic and they could spend a great deal of the match chasing Barcelona down in their own half. The key however to Barcelona’s chances of success will be the added speed of their game in the area thirty yards and less from the visitor’s goal. It wouldn’t be surprising to learn that the pitch has had an extra watering before kick-off to produce a very slick surface. The heavy beating that Arsenal were able to inflict on Milan at the Emirates is still fresh in the memory and it’s hard to argue that Barcelona will be any less effective against the same opposition.

Recommended bet: Back Man. Utd in the race to four corners and Barcelona to beat Milan in a win double.

Tags , , , , , ,
Categories Champions League, Football, Premier League

Premier League Preview : March 31st

March 31, 2012 //
0

Aston Villa vs. Chelsea

Roberto di Matteo has clearly got into the habit of picking specific teams for certain games and this appears to be a more sensible option than selecting the eleven biggest available personalities. Villas-Boas attempted a similar strategy but lacked the finesse in communicating his gameplan, particularly to those whom he had left out of proceedings. Villa have struggled to win at home this season as a record of one victory from the last eight attempts testifies. They remain without influential personnel throughout the team, including Darren Bent who was instrumental in the 3-1 win at Stamford Bridge at Christmas. Evenso, Chelsea don’t have an impressive record at Villa Park in recent times but there is the feeling that they will not get a better opportunity to set the record straight. Some added insurance is available by backing Chelsea in the draw no bet market just in case there remains a hangover from their epic performance on Tuesday night in Lisbon.

Recommended bet: Back Chelsea, draw no bet.

QPR vs. Arsenal

It is virtually impossible to predict how QPR will perform in any particular game at present and their apparent indiscipline isn’t helping their cause. Having looked set for defeat against Liverpool, they rallied and pulled off a 749-1 shock comeback but they followed up that effort by reverting to type by being soundly beaten and losing a man at Sunderland. In contrast, Arsenal have metamorphisised into the most consistent outfit in the division. Their implosion in Milan now looks like a blip but that came at a time when confidence was low and the poor playing surface served as a ready made excuse. Theo Walcott appears to have gained in confidence since the emergence of Oxlade-Chamberlain and now stands as one of the team’s most productive players. Obviously Arsenal’s fullbacks took time to bed back in but now they look a more balanced unit at the back and no longer look like a team that was ready to concede a goal from every attack. Arsenal are now performing in the manner of genuine top four outfit and are deserved favourites to take the three points. There could be a high card count in this contest. More players are red carded playing against Arsenal than any other team in the division. QPR’s discipline, as already mentioned, has become poor in recent outings. This added to the fact that on average one of Van Persie, Song or Koscielny sees yellow during a game leads to a probability that the referee will be busy.

Recommended bets:

Back Arsenal to win.
Back Over 3.5 cards.

Tags , , , , ,
Categories Football, Premier League

Champions League Preview : March 27th

March 27, 2012 //
1

Benfica vs. Chelsea

Benfica were particularly impressive when they played at Old Trafford before Christmas. They literally looked like that they would score on every occasion that they attacked. With a couple of seasoned internationals added to their team, Benfica would look like very serious contenders for Europe’s premier competition. The age profile of the team is excellent. They look ready for the here and now and play with great energy. There is plenty of confidence that when the ball makes it forward into the danger zone that the likes of Cardozo will produce an end product. Their recent form has been more than passable. Considering all that has been said and written, Chelsea’s age profile isn’t as aged as people would assume. They remain an outfit packed with current internationals but their recent form has been patchy. All the evidence suggest that both sides are about equally likely to play to their form and with this in mind Benfica are unlikely to be beaten at home. They have only suffered one defeat on their home patch all season.

Recommended bet: Back Benfica, draw no bet.

Tags , , ,
Categories Champions League, Football

Premier League Preview : March 26th

March 26, 2012 //
0

Manchester Utd vs Fulham

Every game at this end of the season is a win only affair for the title challengers and maximum effort can be expected which is more than be said of some outfits at present. United are chalked up as prohibitive favourites at around the 1/4 mark and should win accordingly. Their key offensive players are proving to be consistently productive and they should employ a strategy of stretching Fulham’s defence across the full width of the field. There is little margin in the straight win bet on United but taking them at 2/5 to be the first team to score two goals on the night is attractive, seeing as the over 2.5 goals quote is only 1/2. As is typical for a televised Monday night game there are plenty of concessions available from the firms. 5 or more goals trigger a refund with Powers on the correct score and first goalscorer markets. Seeing as the over 4.5 goals quote is around 3-1 it is probably a better proposition than some of the player to score last offers, which would run at around 5-1 and bigger in some cases.

Recommended bet: Back Man. Utd to be first to score 2 goals.

Tags , , ,
Categories Football, Premier League

Premier League Preview : March 24th.

March 24, 2012 //
0

Chelsea vs. Tottenham

The outcome of this game will unsurprisingly have a large bearing on which of the clubs will be playing Champion’s League football next season, so the importance of the contest cannot be understated. The positive side of this scenario is that both teams will be focused on the task in hand and a high quality spectacle is more than likely. It has been said that Tottenham’s form has been on the wane over the past few weeks. The results suggest that there is some truth to this assertion but the difficulty level of recent fixtures has been high. What is less arguable is that when the two teams met at White Hart Lane before Christmas, Spurs were at the top of their game and Chelsea were struggling for form. The match ended in a draw suggesting that on their day Chelsea are still a match for the visitors. It wasn’t as if Chelsea played badly away at Man. City during the week but more a case of City performing to their usual high standard, so it is a defeat easily forgiven. The short odds quotes for the over goal markets suggests a game of many chances is in order and given both sides preference for attack a high scoring game could develop. In running backers will know know that over 2.5 goals will trade at close to 5.0 at halftime if the score remains at 0-0 so there may be some margin in being patient. For an opening position, however, the draw no bet on Chelsea is a sensible place to start given the home side’s very good record at Stamford Bridge against Tottenham. It would be surprising if Chelsea failed to score leaving Tottenham the task of scoring at least twice to seal the win.

Recommended bet: Back Chelsea, draw no bet.

Arsenal vs. Aston Villa

Arsenal and Villa have shown widely contrasting form of late. Just when it looked like the wheels were coming off the Arsenal wagon they proceed to string together six straight wins in the league. In contrast Villa have suffered injuries to key personnel and are struggling. Arsenal are the most likely winners of this contest and will have to make the pace in terms of goalscoring for goal backers. The cup tie between these two sides earlier in the year was an intriguing contest to review. Arsenal’s form at the time was indifferent and Villa sought to rattle their confidence early in the game. The away side was rewarded with two goals in the first half before the Gunners dug in and turned the result around. Given the absences from Villa’s ranks and Arsenal’s resurgence it would be surprising if Villa were very attacking early on in the game. They will seek to keep the game tight and form an orderly defence. Arsenal remain an exciting outfit to watch but their youthful profile does lend them to be inconsistent at times. While they are by far the most likely victors of this game, the nature of their performance is an unknown so backing that there will be exactly 2 or 3 goals in the game will cover a wide range of outcomes. There also remains the option of backing over 2.5 goals at a good price at some stage in the game leaving a three goal game as a double winning result.

Recommended bet: Back exactly 2 or 3 goals in the game.

Stoke vs. Manchester City

Despite making hard work of the situation City deserved to beat Chelsea on Wednesday night and have another challenging assignment on their hands away at Stoke. It is virtually guaranteed that City will have the larger share of possession seeing as Liverpool were able to dominate this part of the game against the Potters last weekend. City in turn allowed Chelsea little of the ball for large stretches of their encounter. It is probable that City will play with a high defensive line seeing as Etherington is the most likely threat of pace on the break. They will seek to keep Stoke at a distance from their goal to nullify the home side’s set piece attacks. It will take a supreme defensive effort from Stoke to shut out the likes of Aguero, Silva, Nasri and Tevez. These nimble attackers are just the type of forwards that Stoke struggle against. It was memorable how pleased the Stoke management were prior to a match with Liverpool earlier in the season when it was evident that Suarez would not be lining out against them. City will no doubt attempt to stretch the Stoke backline in the wider areas of the pitch if they are having no joy down the centre. They also have the firepower for accurate long range shooting. It could end up being a frustrating afternoon for City but it will not be for the want of trying.

Recommended bet: Back Man. City in the race to 4 corners.

Tags , , , , , , ,
Categories Football, Premier League

Premier League Preview : March 21st

March 21, 2012 //
0

QPR vs. Liverpool

Liverpool appear to be growing in confidence following their successful League Cup campaign and their advance to the semi-final of the F.A. Cup. Stewart Downing may just be doing enough at this end of the season to force himself into the reckoning for inclusion into the England match day squad. While these opinions are speculative, it is hard to view QPR’s recent numbers in anything other than a negative light. At the point of the season where momentum is vital, no wins from the last six games including two home defeats, their outlook for avoiding relegation doesn’t look bright. The age profile of the team doesn’t lend itself to chasing a rejuvenated Liverpool around on a slick pitch for ninety minutes.

Liverpool’s most consistent unit this season has been their defence, which with sufficient forward support could well have had the squad challenging for a top three position in the league. Some of the problems in attack appear to be in the process of being ironed out but lingering doubts remain. The fact that QPR have conceded nearly twice the amount of goals that Liverpool have in the league probably requires them to score at least two goals against the division’s third best defence in order to win the game.

If Liverpool can maintain any reasonable level of consistency they will be hard pressed to lose the tie. If the away side had shown a free scoring side to their play throughout the season a straight win bet would be the wager of choice but the draw no bet option has its attraction.

Recommended bet: Back Liverpool, draw no bet.

Manchester City vs. Chelsea

Tonight’s game at the Etihad promises to be an intriguing encounter with the possible return of the controversial City striker Carlos Tevez adding spice to a must-win fixture for both clubs. While City are now playing catchup to their red neighbours for the title, Chelsea need maximum points to maintain their push to secure Champions League football for next season.

City’s home record this season is nothing short of impressive, gaining maximum points from 14 games, scoring 42 goals and conceding a mere 6 in the process. Their overall form has been shaky of late though and two defeats in three games has cast fresh doubts over Roberto Mancini’s side. This is in contrast to Chelsea who under caretaker manager Roberto Di Matteo, have won their last four games.

John Terry and Joleon Lescott are confirmed absentees for this fixture while Vincent Kompany remains a large doubt. Given the unsettling of both sides’ defences it may pay to look at the goal markets with more chances than normal being gifted to either side, particularly given the nature of game.

Analysing the bookmakers’ odds, they are predicting 23 chances in the game, taking into consideration each sides conversion rate this season. For three goals to become an attractive proposition there need to be 25 chances in the match, one chance below this season’s Premier League average. This is a realistic possibility considering the team news and importance of maximum points for both sides.

Recommended bet: over 2.5 goals

Tags , , , , ,
Categories Football, Premier League

Premier League Preview : March 3rd

March 3, 2012 //
0

Liverpool vs. Arsenal

After a host of international friendlies in midweek the league program recommences with a fascinating lunchtime encounter at Anfield. What is immediately interesting is the manner in which both sides set up their backlines. Liverpool have a tendency to defend deeply allowing the attacking side little space to exploit beyond their rearguard. It is highly unlikely this approach will be altered in view of the degree of Carragher’s mobility and the pace of Arsenal’s forwards. This game occurs while the memory of Arsenal’s punishing display of Spurs’ lack of discipline is still fresh in the mind. As a result I cannot see Liverpool over-committing their fullbacks in the early part of the game. The downside to this approach is that the distance between the defence and the forwards increases and possession turnovers are more likely to occur. It could take a while for the game to settle down into a discernable rhythm unless one of the teams scores an early goal. Arsenal will no doubt defend with a high line looking to catch Suarez in particular in the offside trap. They live dangerously using this tactic as was seen in the opening stages of last Sunday’s match. If successfully implemented their gameplan will allow them to squeeze Liverpool back and they will look to play in the space between the holding midfielder and Carragher, aiming to play quick passes and getting into the box. There is little margin in crossing the ball high into the penalty area seeing as this is an area where Liverpool will dominate. I virtually find this game impossible to call before kick-off, such is the contrast in styles and the inconsistency, at times, of both teams.

Manchester City vs. Bolton

Last Saturday City could have in truth been six goals ahead by half-time against Blackburn. The visitors offered little resistance but City remained impressive in their relentless attacking play. Yaya Toure looks as if he was never absent and has fitted back seamlessly. It is interesting to note that due to a lack of international action this week, Balotelli is bound to start upfront and surely remains a fresh player given the lack of match time he has endured over the past months. He was individually very effective in the away Europa League tie against Porto and proved worthy of his starting bearth last weekend. Unsurprisingly the over 2.5 goals market suggests that there will be around 27 attempts at goal during the match. It can be expected that City will be the main contributors to the final total. 1/3 feels like a short price for there to be three goals or more but it is probably a realistic quote. I’d prefer to take a chance on City (-2) on the Asian handicap at 4-7 seeing as they will be doing most of the attacking and a victory by two goals results in the return of the stake.

Recommended bet:

Back Man. City (-2), Asian handicap.

Blackburn vs. Aston Villa

Blackburn will simply get fewer better opportunities to take three points at home to Villa than this one. For one reason or another Villa are without three of their better performing players from the past few months and even with a full compliment of personnel, their results have largely been poor. Blackburn would have known for two weeks that Richard Dunne would be absent from the visitor’s defence and have probably planned accordingly. Yakubu has scored at a very respectable rate this season from limited opportunities and his physical presence will cause problems for Villa and without Dunne he will represent more of a challenge. The layer’s over 2.5 goals quotes suggest an open game of around 25 chances but the key variable will be the ability to convert these into scores. The absence of Darren Bent obviously lessens Villa’s prospects in this regard, leaving Blackburn’s Yakubu as the stand-out finisher on the field.

Recommended bet:

Back Yakubu, first goalscorer, 5-1 each way.

Tags , , , , , , , ,
Categories Football, Premier League
« Older Entries
Newer Entries »