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Premier League Preview : March 24th.

March 24, 2012 //
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Chelsea vs. Tottenham

The outcome of this game will unsurprisingly have a large bearing on which of the clubs will be playing Champion’s League football next season, so the importance of the contest cannot be understated. The positive side of this scenario is that both teams will be focused on the task in hand and a high quality spectacle is more than likely. It has been said that Tottenham’s form has been on the wane over the past few weeks. The results suggest that there is some truth to this assertion but the difficulty level of recent fixtures has been high. What is less arguable is that when the two teams met at White Hart Lane before Christmas, Spurs were at the top of their game and Chelsea were struggling for form. The match ended in a draw suggesting that on their day Chelsea are still a match for the visitors. It wasn’t as if Chelsea played badly away at Man. City during the week but more a case of City performing to their usual high standard, so it is a defeat easily forgiven. The short odds quotes for the over goal markets suggests a game of many chances is in order and given both sides preference for attack a high scoring game could develop. In running backers will know know that over 2.5 goals will trade at close to 5.0 at halftime if the score remains at 0-0 so there may be some margin in being patient. For an opening position, however, the draw no bet on Chelsea is a sensible place to start given the home side’s very good record at Stamford Bridge against Tottenham. It would be surprising if Chelsea failed to score leaving Tottenham the task of scoring at least twice to seal the win.

Recommended bet: Back Chelsea, draw no bet.

Arsenal vs. Aston Villa

Arsenal and Villa have shown widely contrasting form of late. Just when it looked like the wheels were coming off the Arsenal wagon they proceed to string together six straight wins in the league. In contrast Villa have suffered injuries to key personnel and are struggling. Arsenal are the most likely winners of this contest and will have to make the pace in terms of goalscoring for goal backers. The cup tie between these two sides earlier in the year was an intriguing contest to review. Arsenal’s form at the time was indifferent and Villa sought to rattle their confidence early in the game. The away side was rewarded with two goals in the first half before the Gunners dug in and turned the result around. Given the absences from Villa’s ranks and Arsenal’s resurgence it would be surprising if Villa were very attacking early on in the game. They will seek to keep the game tight and form an orderly defence. Arsenal remain an exciting outfit to watch but their youthful profile does lend them to be inconsistent at times. While they are by far the most likely victors of this game, the nature of their performance is an unknown so backing that there will be exactly 2 or 3 goals in the game will cover a wide range of outcomes. There also remains the option of backing over 2.5 goals at a good price at some stage in the game leaving a three goal game as a double winning result.

Recommended bet: Back exactly 2 or 3 goals in the game.

Stoke vs. Manchester City

Despite making hard work of the situation City deserved to beat Chelsea on Wednesday night and have another challenging assignment on their hands away at Stoke. It is virtually guaranteed that City will have the larger share of possession seeing as Liverpool were able to dominate this part of the game against the Potters last weekend. City in turn allowed Chelsea little of the ball for large stretches of their encounter. It is probable that City will play with a high defensive line seeing as Etherington is the most likely threat of pace on the break. They will seek to keep Stoke at a distance from their goal to nullify the home side’s set piece attacks. It will take a supreme defensive effort from Stoke to shut out the likes of Aguero, Silva, Nasri and Tevez. These nimble attackers are just the type of forwards that Stoke struggle against. It was memorable how pleased the Stoke management were prior to a match with Liverpool earlier in the season when it was evident that Suarez would not be lining out against them. City will no doubt attempt to stretch the Stoke backline in the wider areas of the pitch if they are having no joy down the centre. They also have the firepower for accurate long range shooting. It could end up being a frustrating afternoon for City but it will not be for the want of trying.

Recommended bet: Back Man. City in the race to 4 corners.

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Premier League Preview : March 21st

March 21, 2012 //
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QPR vs. Liverpool

Liverpool appear to be growing in confidence following their successful League Cup campaign and their advance to the semi-final of the F.A. Cup. Stewart Downing may just be doing enough at this end of the season to force himself into the reckoning for inclusion into the England match day squad. While these opinions are speculative, it is hard to view QPR’s recent numbers in anything other than a negative light. At the point of the season where momentum is vital, no wins from the last six games including two home defeats, their outlook for avoiding relegation doesn’t look bright. The age profile of the team doesn’t lend itself to chasing a rejuvenated Liverpool around on a slick pitch for ninety minutes.

Liverpool’s most consistent unit this season has been their defence, which with sufficient forward support could well have had the squad challenging for a top three position in the league. Some of the problems in attack appear to be in the process of being ironed out but lingering doubts remain. The fact that QPR have conceded nearly twice the amount of goals that Liverpool have in the league probably requires them to score at least two goals against the division’s third best defence in order to win the game.

If Liverpool can maintain any reasonable level of consistency they will be hard pressed to lose the tie. If the away side had shown a free scoring side to their play throughout the season a straight win bet would be the wager of choice but the draw no bet option has its attraction.

Recommended bet: Back Liverpool, draw no bet.

Manchester City vs. Chelsea

Tonight’s game at the Etihad promises to be an intriguing encounter with the possible return of the controversial City striker Carlos Tevez adding spice to a must-win fixture for both clubs. While City are now playing catchup to their red neighbours for the title, Chelsea need maximum points to maintain their push to secure Champions League football for next season.

City’s home record this season is nothing short of impressive, gaining maximum points from 14 games, scoring 42 goals and conceding a mere 6 in the process. Their overall form has been shaky of late though and two defeats in three games has cast fresh doubts over Roberto Mancini’s side. This is in contrast to Chelsea who under caretaker manager Roberto Di Matteo, have won their last four games.

John Terry and Joleon Lescott are confirmed absentees for this fixture while Vincent Kompany remains a large doubt. Given the unsettling of both sides’ defences it may pay to look at the goal markets with more chances than normal being gifted to either side, particularly given the nature of game.

Analysing the bookmakers’ odds, they are predicting 23 chances in the game, taking into consideration each sides conversion rate this season. For three goals to become an attractive proposition there need to be 25 chances in the match, one chance below this season’s Premier League average. This is a realistic possibility considering the team news and importance of maximum points for both sides.

Recommended bet: over 2.5 goals

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Premier League Preview : March 3rd

March 3, 2012 //
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Liverpool vs. Arsenal

After a host of international friendlies in midweek the league program recommences with a fascinating lunchtime encounter at Anfield. What is immediately interesting is the manner in which both sides set up their backlines. Liverpool have a tendency to defend deeply allowing the attacking side little space to exploit beyond their rearguard. It is highly unlikely this approach will be altered in view of the degree of Carragher’s mobility and the pace of Arsenal’s forwards. This game occurs while the memory of Arsenal’s punishing display of Spurs’ lack of discipline is still fresh in the mind. As a result I cannot see Liverpool over-committing their fullbacks in the early part of the game. The downside to this approach is that the distance between the defence and the forwards increases and possession turnovers are more likely to occur. It could take a while for the game to settle down into a discernable rhythm unless one of the teams scores an early goal. Arsenal will no doubt defend with a high line looking to catch Suarez in particular in the offside trap. They live dangerously using this tactic as was seen in the opening stages of last Sunday’s match. If successfully implemented their gameplan will allow them to squeeze Liverpool back and they will look to play in the space between the holding midfielder and Carragher, aiming to play quick passes and getting into the box. There is little margin in crossing the ball high into the penalty area seeing as this is an area where Liverpool will dominate. I virtually find this game impossible to call before kick-off, such is the contrast in styles and the inconsistency, at times, of both teams.

Manchester City vs. Bolton

Last Saturday City could have in truth been six goals ahead by half-time against Blackburn. The visitors offered little resistance but City remained impressive in their relentless attacking play. Yaya Toure looks as if he was never absent and has fitted back seamlessly. It is interesting to note that due to a lack of international action this week, Balotelli is bound to start upfront and surely remains a fresh player given the lack of match time he has endured over the past months. He was individually very effective in the away Europa League tie against Porto and proved worthy of his starting bearth last weekend. Unsurprisingly the over 2.5 goals market suggests that there will be around 27 attempts at goal during the match. It can be expected that City will be the main contributors to the final total. 1/3 feels like a short price for there to be three goals or more but it is probably a realistic quote. I’d prefer to take a chance on City (-2) on the Asian handicap at 4-7 seeing as they will be doing most of the attacking and a victory by two goals results in the return of the stake.

Recommended bet:

Back Man. City (-2), Asian handicap.

Blackburn vs. Aston Villa

Blackburn will simply get fewer better opportunities to take three points at home to Villa than this one. For one reason or another Villa are without three of their better performing players from the past few months and even with a full compliment of personnel, their results have largely been poor. Blackburn would have known for two weeks that Richard Dunne would be absent from the visitor’s defence and have probably planned accordingly. Yakubu has scored at a very respectable rate this season from limited opportunities and his physical presence will cause problems for Villa and without Dunne he will represent more of a challenge. The layer’s over 2.5 goals quotes suggest an open game of around 25 chances but the key variable will be the ability to convert these into scores. The absence of Darren Bent obviously lessens Villa’s prospects in this regard, leaving Blackburn’s Yakubu as the stand-out finisher on the field.

Recommended bet:

Back Yakubu, first goalscorer, 5-1 each way.

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Premier League Preview : February 25th

February 25, 2012 //
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Weather conditions at present should make this a particularly enjoyable weekend for sport and there will be little need for the appearance of gloves and neck warmers up and down Premier League grounds this afternoon. The quality of the football should be decent unless the curse of the bobbly pitch resurfaces.

Newcastle vs. Wolves

Contrary to many predictions Newcastle are hanging in there in the fight for a Champions’ League spot and have far more convincing form of late than the likes of Chelsea or Arsenal. Their current form has them on target for around a 60 point finish in the table based both on their season total so far and the points accrued over the last eight games. The 4-7 about them to beat Wolves this afternoon looks at least fair. Simply based on the two teams respective table positions the quote doesn’t look mean and current form is certainly on the side of the home team. Demba Ba seems to have picked up where he left off in terms of goalscoring and overall play since his return from the African Cup of Nations. He remains the major goal threat and with quotes as low as 4-7 in the anytime scorer market, the layers have run scared of him. He would need five genuine efforts at goal to come even near to justifying that price but only his usually 3.3 (!) to make evens a workable bet.

Recommended bets:

Back Newcastle to beat Wolves

Back Demba Ba anytime scorer at Evens (Boylesports).

Manchester City vs. Blackburn

City continue to go from strength to strength and their progress has been well documented but their victory in Portugal and subsequent demolition job in the second leg of their Europa League tie are particularly meritous efforts. They must be kicking themselves that they are not in the main European competition where only a handful of teams have genuine claims for glory. This is a game that City obviously need to win and very probably will do so. I’ve give the fixture mention here in light of the various bookmaker concessions that are available. Correct scores and first/last goalscorer bets are those that are refunded with Powers if there are four or more goals in the match. By their own reckoning it’s marginally odds on that the concession will be triggered. To have a reasonable chance of the four goals being scored there needs to be around 26 efforts at goal. There will be plenty in the City squad willing to impress as the season draws towards the pivotal games, so it’s unlikely that the home side will let up at any stage. Ladbrokes’ refund concession is enacted should Yakubu score at anytime. Their own odds compilers have him down as a 9-2 shot to hit the net. Essentially they believe he’ll have one or less serious effort at the target which is a very possible reality given the amount of possession that City are likely to have. It’s clear who is offering the better value special on this occasion.

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Premier League Preview : February 11th

February 11, 2012 //
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We are getting to the point in the season where clubs are looking to build momentum going into the deciding phase of the campaign. Every weekend seems to provide a list of intriguing fixtures which are becoming increasingly difficult to call.

Manchester United v. Liverpool

These two sides recently met at Anfield in the F.A. Cup and despite enjoying large periods of possession United did not emerge victorious. Liverpool applied pressure with set pieces early in the game and gradually got themselves back into the contest late on to secure the win. For the middle portion of the contest United were dominant and merited their equalising goal. This game will be largely be determined by how the speedier players on the park perform. There is very little pace at the centre of either defence. Liverpool appeared to be chasing shadows against Tottenham’s midfield on Monday night and it could be a similar story here. It is undoubted that United will enjoy the majority of the possession. They also have the personnel to utilise it in the attacking third of the field. Even so there is a lingering doubt that a well aimed pass over the top will find the likes of Suarez or Bellamy isolated against one of United’s slower defenders. That said, United will spend an awful lot of time probing Liverpool’s flanks and as a result it is hard to see the away side winning this seeing as United are very likely to score. The respective vastly differing conversion rates also support this.

Recommended bet: Back Man. United, draw no bet.

Everton vs. Chelsea

Everton appear to be lifted by the arrival of their new signings and as is traditional at Goodison the midfield has a particularly robust look to it. Landon Donovan has added some much needed guile and they will be hoping that Jelavic will benefit from his input. Chelsea remain an enigma. There are passages throughout games where they play very well, which is hardly a surprise given the quality of the personnel. But more often than not they don’t put the complete performance together. Everton are likely to take the game to Chelsea following the frailties that were on show last Sunday. Ironically this may be to the away side’s advantage. They would like nothing more than to have Sturridge and Torres in a running match against the Everton central defence. The side benefit being that Sturridge will be deployed to pin back the forward advances of Baines. Juan Mata continues to impress without the support he could expect. Had Torres been the goal threat of old, I would have almost fancied Chelsea to win this fixture since the away side could have been good for at least a couple of goals. They would need that sort of cushion seeing as Everton will be keen to test out the newly constructed Chelsea defence. Given the relatively low goal chance conversion rates of both sides, the bookmakers have priced the goal markets up with around 23 chances in mind. With neither side with much reason to hold back it is very possible both teams will score. 5/6 can be considered the right price if the goal chances are shared approximately equally.

Recommended bet: Both teams to score at 5/6 or better.

Tottenham vs. Newcastle

The bookmakers clearly believe that this will be a high scoring affair, probably with a minimum of 24 attempts at goal. Tottenham controlled large parts of the game at Anfield on Monday night and could deprive Newcastle of much of the possession. It will be interesting to see if Newcastle start with just the one up front. If this does not prove to be the case, they will find themselves overmatched in midfield. Spurs are as good as any team in the division in this department. Newcastle’s forward players could find themselves isolated and their defence will be hard pressed to keep the home side at bay. Whether Tottenham attack down the flanks or engage in long range shooting, Newcastle will be wary. In Demba Ba Newcastle clearly have a match winner but it will be a case of them being able to support him effectively whilst not leaving themselves open to the counter attack. The pace of Chelsea’s Sturridge and Drogba was all too much for Newcastle on their home ground before Christmas. There isn’t a great deal of speed in the backline to counter the threat of Bale, Lennon or Defoe. Interestingly, Ladbrokes stand out on their own at 2-1 on the over 3.5 goals which is an accurate reflection of the probabilities if there are to be 24 attempts at goal. The same firm also offer the concession that they will refund selected bets on the game if Ba scores at any time. With two viable chances the concession is around 10-3 to click and around 2-1 if he sees three real chances. Ladbrokes themselves feel he’ll have two and a half!

Sunderland vs. Arsenal

Sunderland’s resurgence has been well reported and Arsenal remain fabulously inconsistent. Sunderland recorded an ultimately convincing 2-0 victory over Swansea not so long ago but it was the Swans who dominated possession and had Sunderland chasing for much of the game. On their day Arsenal are well able to give out a similar lesson but in contrast the Gunners have the firepower to convert possession into goals. Van Persie continues to break records and there’s plenty of pace around to support him. Much of the same can be said of Campbell and Sessegnon who will give the Arsenal defence plenty to think about. The over goals markets suggest that there will be 24 attempts at goal throughout the game and it’s not hard to imagine that Martin O’Neill’s side will push forward early on. They are safely in mid-table and are now looking to advance their position. This will be a game of chances and could literally end up any score.

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Premier League Preview : February 6th

February 6, 2012 //
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Liverpool vs. Tottenham

Both sides have enjoyed, on the whole, decent form of late. At the beginning of the season this fixture would have been viewed as the play-off for fourth or fifth place. Tottenham continue to exceed expectation and despite some absentees this evening, are a surprisingly long price in the match betting. While Defoe’s speed would have troubled the Liverpool backs and Lennon provided width, the game would have been set to be a congested affair irrespective of the line-ups. It is was remarkable how much possession Manchester United enjoyed on their recent visit to Anfield and it is arguable that Spurs have the calibre of player to match United in midfield. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Tottenham have a good proportion of possession in tonight’s game. Add in the fact that they are also content to do a good deal of their shooting from long range and they could be well equipped to hold Liverpool at bay for long periods. Liverpool’s chief threats will arise from the pace of Bellamy and the height of Carroll. Kaboul is more than competent in the air so the service to Carroll will have to be exemplary. The Asian handicap bet on Spurs at +1 is attractive given that the away side is probably the better team. Liverpool seem to be a little short at 11-10 in the win market but they are overall a progressive outfit, even so Spurs’ consistency is enough to sway the argument.

Recommended bet: Tottenham (+1) Asian handicap.

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Premier League Preview : February 4th

February 3, 2012 //
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Arsenal vs. Blackburn

Arsenal continue to stutter throughout their campaign. Indeed, they were better than 20-1 to only win one of their last six league games and their malaise is statistically significant. Blackburn have been very remarkable in their inconsistency and were probably hard done by to come away from Ewood Park with nothing during the week, having bombarded Newcastle for much of the game. Van Persie remains Arsenal’s only reliable route to goal. Modeste has the potential to make an impact with his pace against Arsenal’s backline and he can be classed as efficient as the rest of Blackburn’s forwards. Set pieces still remain a hazard for the home team but Blackburn could find themselves only receiving half a dozen viable scoring chances, so it’s hard to be confident that they will contribute to the scoring. Bookmakers offer a diverse range of prices on the over 3.5 goals market. The spread starts at 6/5 and goes out to 11/8. If the 8/15 for over 2.5 goals is realistic, based on 25 chances at the posts, 11/8 is only marginally an unfair prospect. Given Arsenal’s possible slow start to the game, the +2 asian handicap bet on Blackburn at 3/5 is a workable proposition. Blackburn have as good a record on the road as they do at home.

Recommended bet: Blackburn (+2) Asian Handicap, 3/5.

Newcastle vs. Aston Villa

Villa started tremendously well against Arsenal in the Cup last weekend before they yielded far too many chances for it to be realistic for them to hold on in the game. Darren Bent has struck a great seam of form and continued his record of scoring against top class opposition. Robbie Keane has added firepower to a team that has not been known for it’s scoring this season. So it is fair to say that they provide action at both ends of the field. Newcastle welcome back their topscorer, Demba Ba, and a new number nine in Cisse. Both will be relieved to be back playing for a outfit that has been properly prepared in contrast to the Senegal team that they were unable to assist at the African Cup of Nations. As is usually the case, the price for over 1.5 goals presents better value than the over 3.5 goals quote. With quality strikers on show for both sides and a 24 projected attempts, these factors combined should see at least two goals being scored in the game.

Recommended bet: over 1.5 goals at 1/3.

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Premier League Preview : February 1st

February 1, 2012 //
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Bolton vs. Arsenal

A fascinating contest in prospect with both teams recording much needed victories last time out. Arsenal’s personnel problems have been well documented and as a result it is not hard to imagine that Bolton will have a go at the Gunners from early on. Whether they have the fire power to finish off the job is another debate. Klasnic had been the Trotters’ main source of goals but he has since fallen out of favour. The level of shooting accuracy from the rest of the team has been disappointing. There is little doubt that set piece situations will be key to Bolton’s success or otherwise and this is the area they will look to exploit. Arsenal will look to welcome back Arteta into the first team. His absence against Man. United at the Emirates probably had a significant bearing on the game. His ability to retain and pass the ball is well known but his offensive game also brings much to his team. Bolton are having to re-adjust defensively following the departure of Gary Cahill. He was most often the deepest lying defender and particularly adept at winning offsides. The pace of Arsenal’s frontline will severely test out this new formation. Of course should the away side break Bolton’s line there are few in the league as efficient as van Persie at capitalising. I considered a wager in the asian handicap markets but I feel that Bolton will do well to score through their own efforts, the away side is likely to have a very large share of possession. At the same time Arsenal could gift them a free header from a set-piece and they could score from one of the few opportunites that arise. Arsenal on the other hand are very likely to find the net due to the number of chances they are capable of creating.

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Premier League Preview : January 31st

January 31, 2012 //
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Manchester United v. Stoke City

United are a fairly short order to beat Stoke at Old Trafford tonight even though their price has drifted to a best price of 4/11. It doesn’t look as poor value a price as the 2/5 Liverpool were to beat the Potters at Anfield a few weeks ago. The difference being is that United have at least a handful of potential goalscorers in form at present. In my opinion Antonio Valencia is possibly the most effective right sided attacker operating in the league at present. Welbeck, Scholes, Giggs and Carrick are all playing close to their potential also. United dominated the possession statistics for long spells of play at Anfield on Saturday and there is the potential this evening for them to record unearthly numbers in that department. Stoke have earned a reputation for solidity but their defence is far from impenetrable. It is most usual that they allow the opposition at least 6 opportunities to shoot at goal from inside the box over the ninety minutes. Granted that United are threatening to display defensive frailties but should Etherington be absent for Stoke, some of the threat will subside. Despite the numerous absentees from United’s panel, they are still able to field the better players this evening.

Recommended bet: Man. Utd to beat Stoke, 4/11.

Tottenham v. Wigan Athletic

Tottenham probably got away with one last Friday night at Watford. They were unusually quiet offensively, probably due to the absence of their excellent wide players, and they allowed Watford close to a dozen decent sights at their goal. Had Watford had genuine Premier League quality in their front line they would have had enough chances to win the game comfortably. It remains to be seen if Wigan will be able to capitalise on any similar generosity from Spurs. Absences will shape people’s thinking on how this match will play out. It is likely that Defoe and Lennon, two of Tottenham’s more mobile players, will not play. Rodellega of Wigan has been the subject of much transfer speculation over the past days and may have played his last game for the club. Diame is still away on African Cup of Nations duty and his tackling will be missed. The view of the bookmakers is that goal chances will be plentiful. Allowing for 26 efforts at goal and a conversion rate of just over 12 %, over 3.5 goals should be priced at close to 6-4. Most quotes are below this and some are as short as 6-5. An over 2.5 goals quote of 4-7 is more in line with the actual probablities. Even so, with the ever increasing variables associated with this fixture, a wager can not be confidently recommended.

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Premier League Review : January 21st

January 23, 2012 //
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Hard done by?

Plenty of controversy developed from the meeting of Man. City and Tottenham yesterday in what was one of the most intriguing match-ups of the season so far. It has been well argued as to whether either team got their just deserts from the game’s outcome. I am confident that Spurs didn’t deserve to win the game and can put a case forward that City merited the three points. Balotelli should have been sent off and the decision to allow him to stay on the field ultimately determined the game’s outcome.

But how is it possible to argue that City were deserved winners?

City managed to effect more shots at goal than Spurs did during the ninety plus minutes. As did Arsenal against Man. Utd in their clash. So, total shot count can prove to be a misleading statistic if taken literally. Close analysis of the shooting of the teams playing at the Etihad reveals a vivid picture. City fashioned ten shots at Spurs’ goal from 18 yards or less. In other words Tottenham were unable to stop City having a good number of potentially good quality efforts at their goal. Indeed, before City scored their first goal, five of their first six shots were from 12 yards or less. In contrast, the average shot distance of Spurs’ efforts was greater than 21 yards. Their first effort from less than 20 yards yielded their first goal. Overall City kept them at bay, only allowing the away side three efforts from within the box. A combination of excellent long range shooting and individual errors got Spurs back into the game. It is hard to argue that Spurs deserved to win the game when their own defence was so porous.

There is probably less debate over the merit of United’s victory at the Emirates. United were allowed to get nine shots away from 12 yards or less. It’s hard to argue that you deserve to take something from a game where you offer such little protection to your own goal. United only allowed Arsenal a handful of shots from within the box and only one of the Gunners’ first five shots was from a distance of less than 25 yards. Indeed the average of the Arsenal shooting distance was nearly twice than that of United’s.

I’m not sure that too many people were hard done by yesterday, save Scott Parker of course.

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