Naples would be a tough place to go and get a result at anytime but if you are on a run like Chelsea’s at the moment, now would not be a good time. The Blues would be nearly a 25-1 shot to have only won one of their last six fixtures in all competitions. Clearly things are amiss and statistically verified as such.

Chelsea are obviously suffering defensive mainly due to the absences of stalwart defenders, Terry and Cole. Cole is certain to be absent and even if Terry does play it’s hard to make a case for backing the London side such is the lack of cohesion higher up the pitch. Drogba has been excellent in the Champion’s League this season and it would be surprising if he doesn’t get the nod upfront with Sturridge. Torres continues to misfire and there would be little joy for him up against Napoli’s packed defence.

The Azzurri set themselves up most usually in the formation of an away side with a deep lying defence. They have won remarkably few offsides in Serie A this season, mainly due to the fact there is little space behind their backline. Cavani is the main source of goals assisted chiefly by Hamsik, who incidently has excellent ball retention numbers. Napoli will be ready to exploit any weakness on Chelsea’s left flank with the aid of Maggio who has contributed well on the assist front throughout the league program. This is in addition to Lavezzi who finds himself as the side’s primary playmaker.

The Italian representatives have had significant amount of their games ending as draws and if neither side are willing to commit men forward, we could be in for a cagey start to the game. Even so, Napoli will be looking for some kind of lead to head to Stamford Bridge with. In the interim between the two legs, Cole could well become serviceable again. With all this in mind backing Napoli to win the first leg, draw no bet is the preferred option.

Recommended bet: Back Napoli, draw no bet at 4/6.

The Flyingbolt Novice ‘Chase at Navan this afternoon catches the eye from a betting standpoint. There are only three likely winners in the field of seven runners and one of the main contenders, NEAREST THE PIN, is a horse that I’ve been keeping a close eye on this season. There was no attempt to hide his ability at the Christmas Leopardstown meeting where he was competitive against highly rated opponents in a novice ‘chase. He’s a horse with plenty of gears and it can only be hoped that the ground isn’t too testing this afternoon. On a genuinely good surface he would be a 6-4 shot. The other two likely protagonists are CARLOSWAYBACK and FOILDUBH. FOILDUBH had shown a high level of consistency before finding the heavy ground at Leopardstown not to his liking. He has been competitive against a good grade of runner for much of the season and cannot be discounted in a grade two race. CARLOSWAYBACK, I confess is a horse I don’t know too much about but he appears progressive clearly stays further than the minimum trip. He was only a 7-1 shot to win the grade one Royal Bond in his novice hurdle days. The opposition includes DONNAS PALM who has looked far from comfortable over the larger obstacles since his switch to fencing and FAR AWAY SO CLOSE. The latter just doesn’t seem to see the trip out and has traded at very short odds on more than one occasion before finding less than expected. By also betting in the without the favourite market two of the proposed bets can be winners.

Recommended bets:

Navan 4:00 Back NEAREST THE PIN

Navan 4:00 Without the favourite, Back FOILDUBH

Navan 4:00 Without the favourite, Back CARLOSWAYBACK.

Chelsea are a short enough price at home to Championship side Birmingham to win this lunchtime’s F.A. Cup fixture. The home side looked particularly demotivated for their away trip to Everton last weekend and there is clearly unrest in the camp. The possible absence of Ashley Cole is significant as Chelsea do not have a workable replacement in the position and on the occasions he has been absent the backline has looked a shambles (no wins in his 5 absences from the starting lineup this season). John Terry is also likely to be absent particularly with a Champions’ League fixture in the offing. Had you asked Birmingham which one player would they like to see absent from the team sheet and the captain would have been the most likely reply. In these situations we have to ask whether the underdog has the ability to take advantage of the favourite’s predicament. Birmingham’s games against Wolves earlier in the competition were described at best as dire. They looked like two Championship sides in a contest of brawn rather than guile. Nathan Redmond is rare ray of light and looks a skillful player of much potential. His impact will depend on whether Birmingham can release him quickly enough and allow him to run against an isolated defender. Even so it remains that Chelsea have the better players. For all their woes it is easy to forget that Essien, Sturridge and Mata will line out for the home side and the issues for Chelsea are motivational and organisational rather than questions of ability. For the reasons stated it is impossible to make a forecast before kick-off and for those wanting to be involved in the betting, an in-running wager is probably the best course of action.

Norwich vs. Leicester

Norwich have been a revelation in the Premier League this season and currently lie eigth in the top division. In contrast Leicester find themselves just in the bottom half of the Championship. Paul Lambert clearly has his team well organised and combined with a fair efficiency in front of goal Norwich are set for a comfortable mid table finish at the least. Grant Holt has been in excellent form this season and was far too much for a lauded Swansea team to handle last weekend. He is ably assisted by the likes of Pilkington and Morison and the home team isn’t solely reliant on him to score the goals. I’m finding it hard to explain the apparent generosity of the layers in offering 10-11 on a Norwich victory. The better team is at home and playing very well. Leicester will be no pushovers but Norwich are the same price to beat them as Man. Utd were to beat Liverpool last weekend. It has to be argued that United and Liverpool are closer in ability than the opponents in this cup tie who find themselves a division apart.

Recommended bet: Back Norwich at 10-11.

Everton vs. Blackpool

This is potentially one of the more lively contests to be played this weekend. Indeed the over 2.5 goals market suggests there will be around 27 efforts at goals during the game. What will count ultimately is which side proves to be the more ruthless in front of goal. Everton’s new recruits have seen them to be more purposeful and therefore the absences of Pienaar and Donovan will be a loss. With the two aforementioned players along with Cahill and Gibson, Everton had the makings of a vibrant midfield that would, over ninety minutes, been too much for Blackpool. In contrast there is not a lot of pace at the back for Everton and this is why I suspect that Blackpool will engage in an open attacking game to facilitate situations where Everton’s midfield cover are out of place. Blackpool are certainly in confident mood having won four of their last 5 games but surely Everton’s form at home in their last three fixtures of beating Chelsea, Man. City and Fulham amounts to more. Again the Premier League team probably has more ability and it is only the fact that the absentees are likely to prove significant that I will not be backing Everton at 8/15. Equally I wont be taking them on.

Sunderland vs. Arsenal

Arsenal need to come with a wealth warning attached to them at present. When they fancy playing they can still be hugely effective but when the mood doesn’t take them, they can be abject. On the face of it their league victory at the Stadium of Light looks a decent bit of form but I suspect that the result had more to do with Sunderland’s limitations rather than Arsenal’s ability. Swansea probably should have left the North East with a result having dominated a recent league fixture up there but they were caught chasing the game and couldn’t finish their own chances. Van Persie is having to carry the away side virtually single handed. Many of his goals he has created out of very little and typically not because the service has been conducive to goalscoring. Arsenal have been shorn of their centre backs which didn’t look to be too much of a disadvantage in midweek until we witnessed how inept the replacements were and how out of practice the fullbacks appeared to be. But wishing to remain objective they are unlikley to come up against the quality of Ibrahimovic and Robinho this evening and I do suspect they made Boeteng look a bit better than he actually is. Sunderland will no doubt play a pressing game to test the confidence of this Arsenal side but should they over stretch themselves Arsenal’s counterattack players could cause them some damage. The over goals markets do suggest an open game. Again this is a contest where before kick off it is hard to have a definitive view. It has to be remembered that Sunderland will not be able to sustain a pressing effort for the entire game and if Arsenal are still at parity they could yet again land a late blow.

The form of the Cheltenham RSA Novice ‘Chase 2010 has been phenomenal. LONG RUN won both last season’s championship events and Diamond Harry and Little Josh won the two major pre-Christmas handicap ‘chases. BURTON PORT was a respectable second to Diamond Harry at Newbury and now makes his first appearance since November 2010. He remains a representative of a very decent vintage and the fact he runs against the Gold Cup favourite, we will be wiser as to his prospects at Cheltenham. Taking a very small bet on him at 33-1 with Betfred for the Gold Cup has its advantages. The firm are offering non-runner, no bet and therefore if today is a complete blow out he will not run at the Festival and hence a refund will be due. Of course if he runs LONG RUN close, his price will contract.

Recommended bets:

1:15 Newbury ZARKANDAR

Cheltenham Gold Cup: BURTON PORT, 33-1 Betfred, non-runner, no bet.

These are two sides which rely heavily on their own talismanic front men: Van Persie and Ibrahimovic. Premier League followers need no further introduction to Van Persie but it is worth highlighting the value of Ibrahimovic to Milan. He does much of the shooting and dribbling for his side with Cassano providing a great deal of the assists. Only Nocerino has contributed to the goal tally as efficiently but then has less than half the scores the Swede has amassed. Even so this Milan side does not looked blessed with abundant pace going forward. Robinho is a tidy player as his high pass completion rate suggests but he wouldn’t be as explosive as Oxlade-Chamberlain or Walcott. Henry could yet play a cameo role and clearly still has an eye for goal. Vermaelen has been missed at the heart of Arsenal’s defence and his return is of great benefit. I would expect him to play plenty of triangular passes with the likes of Arteta and Rosicky to ensure Arsenal retain possession. It is unlikely that Milan will press as hard as Madrid, Barcelona or even Man. Utd so the Arsenal midfield is bound to have time to pick its passes. In contrast the Gunners will be more adept at harrying Milan in the centre of the field and it has to be wondered whether Mexes and Tiago can quieten Van Persie. The recently re-laying of the San Siro surface is a little concern as it adds an unknown variable to the equation but bearing in mind Arsenal’s excellent record at home in European competition, I can see Arsenal progressing to the next round and don’t believe they should be the outsiders in this tie.

Recommended bet: back Arsenal to qualify for the next round.

Barcelona are close to fielding a full side with only Villa and Busquets being the significant absentees. The Catalan side has been far from convincing on the road and this has to be worrying for their longer term prospects of silverware for this season. The absentees from Sunday’s league defeat have been well reported and another Champion’s League victory is now the number one priority. Michael Ballack is an obvious absentee for Leverkusen but his contribution to the team has probably been of a more inspiration quality rather than in terms of output. Sidney Sam on the other hand is a massive loss. He has been highly productive offensively and impressively efficient in doing so. He has a close on 86 % pass completion rate in the Bundesliga and is one of side’s main ball carriers. Derdiyok also misses the game and while he has not been as protective of the ball in possession, he scores with a sixth of his efforts at goal.

The ‘over’ goal markets have taken into account that there will be around 24 attempts at goal over the ninety minutes. The best prices available for each of the ‘over’ markets are consistent until we reach the over 3.5 goals quote. 6-4 is a desperately poor offer and even the 7-4 available is poor value where 2.9 is the realistic price. Both teams are likely to stutter into action and going low on goals looks the way forward.

Recommended bet: Back under 3.5 goals at 1.56

The juvenile hurdlers open the card in what promises to be a competitive Triumph Hurdle trial. UT DE SIVOLA has been proficient in winning his first two hurdle starts in Ireland with noticeable quick jumping. Even though he is not a flat-bred, his jumps winning sire is noted for producing precocious National Hunt types. The better pace to this race will suit him compared to the relative crawl of his previous outing. HIS EXCELLENCY took the honours here at Christmas in a grade two event. He is notoriously quirky and is set to be ridden to deliver a late challenge once again. He is hard to rule out of the places in the event of a collapsing pace. I just get the feeling that if one of these is to progress and be a live contender for the main event at Cheltenham, it will be UT DE SIVOLA.

The second grade one novice hurdle event has not attracted the same quantity as the first but the quality is up to scratch. Again Willie Mullins supplies the favourite for the contest in the shape of SOUS LES CIEUX. He was an impressive winner at Fairyhouse in December before proving a shade disappointing back here at Christmas. He was not the first horse to have the edge knocked off him by winning the Royal Bond and then reappearing shortly after. The better ground would have also been against him but even in victory he has looked one paced and could prove vulnerable to horses with a turn of pace. Extremely heavy ground would go someway to negating his lack of foot but as conditions stand he will find winning this difficult. CASH AND GO was the victor here at Christmas using his change of pace to come clear with the runner-up. I get the sense that he would not be carrying the ‘Back In Front’ level of confidence from the stable heading to a Supreme Novice Hurdle. But that is a subjective point of view and his overall record is convincing. If SOUS LES CIEUX has a vulnerability to a slowly run contest, CAPTAIN CONAN has shown some aptitude to winning in such circumstances in taking the Tolworth Hurdle. It can be argued that had COLOUR SQUADRON not hung across the track, CAPTAIN CONAN would have had to settle for the runner-up slot. In winning a listed contest at Punchestown LORD WINDERMERE marked himself down as a very useful recruit. He virtually refused to canter to the start and then during the race he looked very green and thought about ducking out coming to the last. Even so, he still managed to prevail against more experienced opponents.

The novice ‘chasers take their chance in the Dr. P.J.Moriarty ‘Chase over an intermediate distance. We are virtually guaranteed a strong pace here since there are slight concerns for LAST INSTALMENT dropping back in trip. He is likely to be prominent early on and his accurate jumping will apply pressure. LAMBRO‘s form has received a boost when the horse he followed home at Naas, FLEMENSTAR, convincingly took the Arkle ‘Chase at Leopardstown. He steps up in trip which may well garner improvement. The others are solid horses who may well have their day but are unlikely to be contending in the Cheltenham championship events.

The feature race, The Hennessy Gold Cup, has unfortunately lost a few dimensions with the absentees but tomorrow’s winner will be none too concerned over that. QUEL ESPRIT seems to have been around a while and it is hard to believe that he is still only eight and as a result we may not have seen the best of him yet. Much has been said about his short price especially for a horse that had difficulty in completing the course for much of last season. A number of the remainder of the field have been equipped with various items of headgear in order to aid concentration or willing, which hardly smacks of encouragement. This could be a case of who enjoys getting into a decent rhythm will go a long way to winning this. CHINA ROCK is on the comeback trail and his hurdling prep had positive aspects to it. There is a suspicion that he doesn’t quite get home over the trip but in a race in which anything could win should the favourite suffer misadventure it is hard to rule anyone out.

Recommended bets:

Leopardstown 13:05, UT DE SIVOLA at 5-2.
Leopardstown 13:05 without the favourite, HIS EXCELLENCY each way at 9-1.

Manchester United v. Liverpool

These two sides recently met at Anfield in the F.A. Cup and despite enjoying large periods of possession United did not emerge victorious. Liverpool applied pressure with set pieces early in the game and gradually got themselves back into the contest late on to secure the win. For the middle portion of the contest United were dominant and merited their equalising goal. This game will be largely be determined by how the speedier players on the park perform. There is very little pace at the centre of either defence. Liverpool appeared to be chasing shadows against Tottenham’s midfield on Monday night and it could be a similar story here. It is undoubted that United will enjoy the majority of the possession. They also have the personnel to utilise it in the attacking third of the field. Even so there is a lingering doubt that a well aimed pass over the top will find the likes of Suarez or Bellamy isolated against one of United’s slower defenders. That said, United will spend an awful lot of time probing Liverpool’s flanks and as a result it is hard to see the away side winning this seeing as United are very likely to score. The respective vastly differing conversion rates also support this.

Recommended bet: Back Man. United, draw no bet.

Everton vs. Chelsea

Everton appear to be lifted by the arrival of their new signings and as is traditional at Goodison the midfield has a particularly robust look to it. Landon Donovan has added some much needed guile and they will be hoping that Jelavic will benefit from his input. Chelsea remain an enigma. There are passages throughout games where they play very well, which is hardly a surprise given the quality of the personnel. But more often than not they don’t put the complete performance together. Everton are likely to take the game to Chelsea following the frailties that were on show last Sunday. Ironically this may be to the away side’s advantage. They would like nothing more than to have Sturridge and Torres in a running match against the Everton central defence. The side benefit being that Sturridge will be deployed to pin back the forward advances of Baines. Juan Mata continues to impress without the support he could expect. Had Torres been the goal threat of old, I would have almost fancied Chelsea to win this fixture since the away side could have been good for at least a couple of goals. They would need that sort of cushion seeing as Everton will be keen to test out the newly constructed Chelsea defence. Given the relatively low goal chance conversion rates of both sides, the bookmakers have priced the goal markets up with around 23 chances in mind. With neither side with much reason to hold back it is very possible both teams will score. 5/6 can be considered the right price if the goal chances are shared approximately equally.

Recommended bet: Both teams to score at 5/6 or better.

Tottenham vs. Newcastle

The bookmakers clearly believe that this will be a high scoring affair, probably with a minimum of 24 attempts at goal. Tottenham controlled large parts of the game at Anfield on Monday night and could deprive Newcastle of much of the possession. It will be interesting to see if Newcastle start with just the one up front. If this does not prove to be the case, they will find themselves overmatched in midfield. Spurs are as good as any team in the division in this department. Newcastle’s forward players could find themselves isolated and their defence will be hard pressed to keep the home side at bay. Whether Tottenham attack down the flanks or engage in long range shooting, Newcastle will be wary. In Demba Ba Newcastle clearly have a match winner but it will be a case of them being able to support him effectively whilst not leaving themselves open to the counter attack. The pace of Chelsea’s Sturridge and Drogba was all too much for Newcastle on their home ground before Christmas. There isn’t a great deal of speed in the backline to counter the threat of Bale, Lennon or Defoe. Interestingly, Ladbrokes stand out on their own at 2-1 on the over 3.5 goals which is an accurate reflection of the probabilities if there are to be 24 attempts at goal. The same firm also offer the concession that they will refund selected bets on the game if Ba scores at any time. With two viable chances the concession is around 10-3 to click and around 2-1 if he sees three real chances. Ladbrokes themselves feel he’ll have two and a half!

Sunderland vs. Arsenal

Sunderland’s resurgence has been well reported and Arsenal remain fabulously inconsistent. Sunderland recorded an ultimately convincing 2-0 victory over Swansea not so long ago but it was the Swans who dominated possession and had Sunderland chasing for much of the game. On their day Arsenal are well able to give out a similar lesson but in contrast the Gunners have the firepower to convert possession into goals. Van Persie continues to break records and there’s plenty of pace around to support him. Much of the same can be said of Campbell and Sessegnon who will give the Arsenal defence plenty to think about. The over goals markets suggest that there will be 24 attempts at goal throughout the game and it’s not hard to imagine that Martin O’Neill’s side will push forward early on. They are safely in mid-table and are now looking to advance their position. This will be a game of chances and could literally end up any score.

Both sides have enjoyed, on the whole, decent form of late. At the beginning of the season this fixture would have been viewed as the play-off for fourth or fifth place. Tottenham continue to exceed expectation and despite some absentees this evening, are a surprisingly long price in the match betting. While Defoe’s speed would have troubled the Liverpool backs and Lennon provided width, the game would have been set to be a congested affair irrespective of the line-ups. It is was remarkable how much possession Manchester United enjoyed on their recent visit to Anfield and it is arguable that Spurs have the calibre of player to match United in midfield. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Tottenham have a good proportion of possession in tonight’s game. Add in the fact that they are also content to do a good deal of their shooting from long range and they could be well equipped to hold Liverpool at bay for long periods. Liverpool’s chief threats will arise from the pace of Bellamy and the height of Carroll. Kaboul is more than competent in the air so the service to Carroll will have to be exemplary. The Asian handicap bet on Spurs at +1 is attractive given that the away side is probably the better team. Liverpool seem to be a little short at 11-10 in the win market but they are overall a progressive outfit, even so Spurs’ consistency is enough to sway the argument.

Recommended bet: Tottenham (+1) Asian handicap.

Arsenal continue to stutter throughout their campaign. Indeed, they were better than 20-1 to only win one of their last six league games and their malaise is statistically significant. Blackburn have been very remarkable in their inconsistency and were probably hard done by to come away from Ewood Park with nothing during the week, having bombarded Newcastle for much of the game. Van Persie remains Arsenal’s only reliable route to goal. Modeste has the potential to make an impact with his pace against Arsenal’s backline and he can be classed as efficient as the rest of Blackburn’s forwards. Set pieces still remain a hazard for the home team but Blackburn could find themselves only receiving half a dozen viable scoring chances, so it’s hard to be confident that they will contribute to the scoring. Bookmakers offer a diverse range of prices on the over 3.5 goals market. The spread starts at 6/5 and goes out to 11/8. If the 8/15 for over 2.5 goals is realistic, based on 25 chances at the posts, 11/8 is only marginally an unfair prospect. Given Arsenal’s possible slow start to the game, the +2 asian handicap bet on Blackburn at 3/5 is a workable proposition. Blackburn have as good a record on the road as they do at home.

Recommended bet: Blackburn (+2) Asian Handicap, 3/5.

Newcastle vs. Aston Villa

Villa started tremendously well against Arsenal in the Cup last weekend before they yielded far too many chances for it to be realistic for them to hold on in the game. Darren Bent has struck a great seam of form and continued his record of scoring against top class opposition. Robbie Keane has added firepower to a team that has not been known for it’s scoring this season. So it is fair to say that they provide action at both ends of the field. Newcastle welcome back their topscorer, Demba Ba, and a new number nine in Cisse. Both will be relieved to be back playing for a outfit that has been properly prepared in contrast to the Senegal team that they were unable to assist at the African Cup of Nations. As is usually the case, the price for over 1.5 goals presents better value than the over 3.5 goals quote. With quality strikers on show for both sides and a 24 projected attempts, these factors combined should see at least two goals being scored in the game.

Recommended bet: over 1.5 goals at 1/3.