Manchester City vs. Tottenham / Arsenal vs. Manchester United

The under and over goal quotes are very similar for both these matches. As a consequence much of the analysis for one will serve for the other.

After much tinkering with the number of likely goal attempts and different conversion rates I can come to only one conclusion. As the number of goals on the ‘over’ bets increases, the betting value decreases. I settled on both games having 20 attempts at goal combined with a conversion rate of 0.135. This brings the over 1.5 goals price of 1.29 as a starting point and if there is any accuracy in this price the over 2.5 and over 3.5 prices should be 1.92 and 3.56 respectively. The exchange prices at the time of writing are around 1.83 and 3.1 so it’s clear where the value doesn’t lie. If either game starts slowly I would expect those prices to drift rapidly.

Paddy Power are offering a refund on goalscorer and correct score markets if four or more goals are scored in the relevant match. Therefore it is around 4/5 that the special will cop in at least one of the games. For bettors who habitually play in these markets the special delivers a fair enough proposition and goes some way to explaining why liquidity has dried up on the exchanges in the first goalscorer markets.

It is noticeable how much pace is in the Man. City back-line to counter the threat of Bale, Defoe and Lennon. Spurs will rely on the accurate passing of Modric and Van der Vaart finding their targets if the away side is to make an impression on the game. City on the otherhand will be counting on Silva, Nasri and Aguero linking up and Spurs will have to remain compact in the centre to cut out the threat. The first goal will be crucial, if it goes to the home side Spurs will find it an uphill task to equalise.

This is a game to watch develop before any betting is advisable.

Mikel Arteta has been a vital component of Arsenal’s midfield this season. The contribution from his allround play and particularly his passing will be badly missed this afternoon. As a consequence I can envisage an open game with plenty of chances. In contrast to the Man. City and Tottenham teams there seems to be less pace in the rearguards in opposition at the Emirates. Goals are likely to be forthcoming seeing as the forward players are likely to have the edge here.

Recommended bet: Back over 1.5 goals at 1.29.