Archives for posts with tag: Arsenal

FA Cup 5th Round Preview : February 18th

February 18, 2012 //
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Chelsea vs. Birmingham

Chelsea are a short enough price at home to Championship side Birmingham to win this lunchtime’s F.A. Cup fixture. The home side looked particularly demotivated for their away trip to Everton last weekend and there is clearly unrest in the camp. The possible absence of Ashley Cole is significant as Chelsea do not have a workable replacement in the position and on the occasions he has been absent the backline has looked a shambles (no wins in his 5 absences from the starting lineup this season). John Terry is also likely to be absent particularly with a Champions’ League fixture in the offing. Had you asked Birmingham which one player would they like to see absent from the team sheet and the captain would have been the most likely reply. In these situations we have to ask whether the underdog has the ability to take advantage of the favourite’s predicament. Birmingham’s games against Wolves earlier in the competition were described at best as dire. They looked like two Championship sides in a contest of brawn rather than guile. Nathan Redmond is rare ray of light and looks a skillful player of much potential. His impact will depend on whether Birmingham can release him quickly enough and allow him to run against an isolated defender. Even so it remains that Chelsea have the better players. For all their woes it is easy to forget that Essien, Sturridge and Mata will line out for the home side and the issues for Chelsea are motivational and organisational rather than questions of ability. For the reasons stated it is impossible to make a forecast before kick-off and for those wanting to be involved in the betting, an in-running wager is probably the best course of action.

Norwich vs. Leicester

Norwich have been a revelation in the Premier League this season and currently lie eigth in the top division. In contrast Leicester find themselves just in the bottom half of the Championship. Paul Lambert clearly has his team well organised and combined with a fair efficiency in front of goal Norwich are set for a comfortable mid table finish at the least. Grant Holt has been in excellent form this season and was far too much for a lauded Swansea team to handle last weekend. He is ably assisted by the likes of Pilkington and Morison and the home team isn’t solely reliant on him to score the goals. I’m finding it hard to explain the apparent generosity of the layers in offering 10-11 on a Norwich victory. The better team is at home and playing very well. Leicester will be no pushovers but Norwich are the same price to beat them as Man. Utd were to beat Liverpool last weekend. It has to be argued that United and Liverpool are closer in ability than the opponents in this cup tie who find themselves a division apart.

Recommended bet: Back Norwich at 10-11.

Everton vs. Blackpool

This is potentially one of the more lively contests to be played this weekend. Indeed the over 2.5 goals market suggests there will be around 27 efforts at goals during the game. What will count ultimately is which side proves to be the more ruthless in front of goal. Everton’s new recruits have seen them to be more purposeful and therefore the absences of Pienaar and Donovan will be a loss. With the two aforementioned players along with Cahill and Gibson, Everton had the makings of a vibrant midfield that would, over ninety minutes, been too much for Blackpool. In contrast there is not a lot of pace at the back for Everton and this is why I suspect that Blackpool will engage in an open attacking game to facilitate situations where Everton’s midfield cover are out of place. Blackpool are certainly in confident mood having won four of their last 5 games but surely Everton’s form at home in their last three fixtures of beating Chelsea, Man. City and Fulham amounts to more. Again the Premier League team probably has more ability and it is only the fact that the absentees are likely to prove significant that I will not be backing Everton at 8/15. Equally I wont be taking them on.

Sunderland vs. Arsenal

Arsenal need to come with a wealth warning attached to them at present. When they fancy playing they can still be hugely effective but when the mood doesn’t take them, they can be abject. On the face of it their league victory at the Stadium of Light looks a decent bit of form but I suspect that the result had more to do with Sunderland’s limitations rather than Arsenal’s ability. Swansea probably should have left the North East with a result having dominated a recent league fixture up there but they were caught chasing the game and couldn’t finish their own chances. Van Persie is having to carry the away side virtually single handed. Many of his goals he has created out of very little and typically not because the service has been conducive to goalscoring. Arsenal have been shorn of their centre backs which didn’t look to be too much of a disadvantage in midweek until we witnessed how inept the replacements were and how out of practice the fullbacks appeared to be. But wishing to remain objective they are unlikley to come up against the quality of Ibrahimovic and Robinho this evening and I do suspect they made Boeteng look a bit better than he actually is. Sunderland will no doubt play a pressing game to test the confidence of this Arsenal side but should they over stretch themselves Arsenal’s counterattack players could cause them some damage. The over goals markets do suggest an open game. Again this is a contest where before kick off it is hard to have a definitive view. It has to be remembered that Sunderland will not be able to sustain a pressing effort for the entire game and if Arsenal are still at parity they could yet again land a late blow.

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Categories FA Cup, Football

Champions League Preview : February 15th

February 15, 2012 //
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AC Milan vs. Arsenal

These are two sides which rely heavily on their own talismanic front men: Van Persie and Ibrahimovic. Premier League followers need no further introduction to Van Persie but it is worth highlighting the value of Ibrahimovic to Milan. He does much of the shooting and dribbling for his side with Cassano providing a great deal of the assists. Only Nocerino has contributed to the goal tally as efficiently but then has less than half the scores the Swede has amassed. Even so this Milan side does not looked blessed with abundant pace going forward. Robinho is a tidy player as his high pass completion rate suggests but he wouldn’t be as explosive as Oxlade-Chamberlain or Walcott. Henry could yet play a cameo role and clearly still has an eye for goal. Vermaelen has been missed at the heart of Arsenal’s defence and his return is of great benefit. I would expect him to play plenty of triangular passes with the likes of Arteta and Rosicky to ensure Arsenal retain possession. It is unlikely that Milan will press as hard as Madrid, Barcelona or even Man. Utd so the Arsenal midfield is bound to have time to pick its passes. In contrast the Gunners will be more adept at harrying Milan in the centre of the field and it has to be wondered whether Mexes and Tiago can quieten Van Persie. The recently re-laying of the San Siro surface is a little concern as it adds an unknown variable to the equation but bearing in mind Arsenal’s excellent record at home in European competition, I can see Arsenal progressing to the next round and don’t believe they should be the outsiders in this tie.

Recommended bet: back Arsenal to qualify for the next round.

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Categories Champions League, Football

Premier League Preview : February 11th

February 11, 2012 //
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We are getting to the point in the season where clubs are looking to build momentum going into the deciding phase of the campaign. Every weekend seems to provide a list of intriguing fixtures which are becoming increasingly difficult to call.

Manchester United v. Liverpool

These two sides recently met at Anfield in the F.A. Cup and despite enjoying large periods of possession United did not emerge victorious. Liverpool applied pressure with set pieces early in the game and gradually got themselves back into the contest late on to secure the win. For the middle portion of the contest United were dominant and merited their equalising goal. This game will be largely be determined by how the speedier players on the park perform. There is very little pace at the centre of either defence. Liverpool appeared to be chasing shadows against Tottenham’s midfield on Monday night and it could be a similar story here. It is undoubted that United will enjoy the majority of the possession. They also have the personnel to utilise it in the attacking third of the field. Even so there is a lingering doubt that a well aimed pass over the top will find the likes of Suarez or Bellamy isolated against one of United’s slower defenders. That said, United will spend an awful lot of time probing Liverpool’s flanks and as a result it is hard to see the away side winning this seeing as United are very likely to score. The respective vastly differing conversion rates also support this.

Recommended bet: Back Man. United, draw no bet.

Everton vs. Chelsea

Everton appear to be lifted by the arrival of their new signings and as is traditional at Goodison the midfield has a particularly robust look to it. Landon Donovan has added some much needed guile and they will be hoping that Jelavic will benefit from his input. Chelsea remain an enigma. There are passages throughout games where they play very well, which is hardly a surprise given the quality of the personnel. But more often than not they don’t put the complete performance together. Everton are likely to take the game to Chelsea following the frailties that were on show last Sunday. Ironically this may be to the away side’s advantage. They would like nothing more than to have Sturridge and Torres in a running match against the Everton central defence. The side benefit being that Sturridge will be deployed to pin back the forward advances of Baines. Juan Mata continues to impress without the support he could expect. Had Torres been the goal threat of old, I would have almost fancied Chelsea to win this fixture since the away side could have been good for at least a couple of goals. They would need that sort of cushion seeing as Everton will be keen to test out the newly constructed Chelsea defence. Given the relatively low goal chance conversion rates of both sides, the bookmakers have priced the goal markets up with around 23 chances in mind. With neither side with much reason to hold back it is very possible both teams will score. 5/6 can be considered the right price if the goal chances are shared approximately equally.

Recommended bet: Both teams to score at 5/6 or better.

Tottenham vs. Newcastle

The bookmakers clearly believe that this will be a high scoring affair, probably with a minimum of 24 attempts at goal. Tottenham controlled large parts of the game at Anfield on Monday night and could deprive Newcastle of much of the possession. It will be interesting to see if Newcastle start with just the one up front. If this does not prove to be the case, they will find themselves overmatched in midfield. Spurs are as good as any team in the division in this department. Newcastle’s forward players could find themselves isolated and their defence will be hard pressed to keep the home side at bay. Whether Tottenham attack down the flanks or engage in long range shooting, Newcastle will be wary. In Demba Ba Newcastle clearly have a match winner but it will be a case of them being able to support him effectively whilst not leaving themselves open to the counter attack. The pace of Chelsea’s Sturridge and Drogba was all too much for Newcastle on their home ground before Christmas. There isn’t a great deal of speed in the backline to counter the threat of Bale, Lennon or Defoe. Interestingly, Ladbrokes stand out on their own at 2-1 on the over 3.5 goals which is an accurate reflection of the probabilities if there are to be 24 attempts at goal. The same firm also offer the concession that they will refund selected bets on the game if Ba scores at any time. With two viable chances the concession is around 10-3 to click and around 2-1 if he sees three real chances. Ladbrokes themselves feel he’ll have two and a half!

Sunderland vs. Arsenal

Sunderland’s resurgence has been well reported and Arsenal remain fabulously inconsistent. Sunderland recorded an ultimately convincing 2-0 victory over Swansea not so long ago but it was the Swans who dominated possession and had Sunderland chasing for much of the game. On their day Arsenal are well able to give out a similar lesson but in contrast the Gunners have the firepower to convert possession into goals. Van Persie continues to break records and there’s plenty of pace around to support him. Much of the same can be said of Campbell and Sessegnon who will give the Arsenal defence plenty to think about. The over goals markets suggest that there will be 24 attempts at goal throughout the game and it’s not hard to imagine that Martin O’Neill’s side will push forward early on. They are safely in mid-table and are now looking to advance their position. This will be a game of chances and could literally end up any score.

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Categories Football, Premier League

Premier League Preview : February 4th

February 3, 2012 //
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Arsenal vs. Blackburn

Arsenal continue to stutter throughout their campaign. Indeed, they were better than 20-1 to only win one of their last six league games and their malaise is statistically significant. Blackburn have been very remarkable in their inconsistency and were probably hard done by to come away from Ewood Park with nothing during the week, having bombarded Newcastle for much of the game. Van Persie remains Arsenal’s only reliable route to goal. Modeste has the potential to make an impact with his pace against Arsenal’s backline and he can be classed as efficient as the rest of Blackburn’s forwards. Set pieces still remain a hazard for the home team but Blackburn could find themselves only receiving half a dozen viable scoring chances, so it’s hard to be confident that they will contribute to the scoring. Bookmakers offer a diverse range of prices on the over 3.5 goals market. The spread starts at 6/5 and goes out to 11/8. If the 8/15 for over 2.5 goals is realistic, based on 25 chances at the posts, 11/8 is only marginally an unfair prospect. Given Arsenal’s possible slow start to the game, the +2 asian handicap bet on Blackburn at 3/5 is a workable proposition. Blackburn have as good a record on the road as they do at home.

Recommended bet: Blackburn (+2) Asian Handicap, 3/5.

Newcastle vs. Aston Villa

Villa started tremendously well against Arsenal in the Cup last weekend before they yielded far too many chances for it to be realistic for them to hold on in the game. Darren Bent has struck a great seam of form and continued his record of scoring against top class opposition. Robbie Keane has added firepower to a team that has not been known for it’s scoring this season. So it is fair to say that they provide action at both ends of the field. Newcastle welcome back their topscorer, Demba Ba, and a new number nine in Cisse. Both will be relieved to be back playing for a outfit that has been properly prepared in contrast to the Senegal team that they were unable to assist at the African Cup of Nations. As is usually the case, the price for over 1.5 goals presents better value than the over 3.5 goals quote. With quality strikers on show for both sides and a 24 projected attempts, these factors combined should see at least two goals being scored in the game.

Recommended bet: over 1.5 goals at 1/3.

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Categories Football, Premier League

Premier League Preview : February 1st

February 1, 2012 //
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Bolton vs. Arsenal

A fascinating contest in prospect with both teams recording much needed victories last time out. Arsenal’s personnel problems have been well documented and as a result it is not hard to imagine that Bolton will have a go at the Gunners from early on. Whether they have the fire power to finish off the job is another debate. Klasnic had been the Trotters’ main source of goals but he has since fallen out of favour. The level of shooting accuracy from the rest of the team has been disappointing. There is little doubt that set piece situations will be key to Bolton’s success or otherwise and this is the area they will look to exploit. Arsenal will look to welcome back Arteta into the first team. His absence against Man. United at the Emirates probably had a significant bearing on the game. His ability to retain and pass the ball is well known but his offensive game also brings much to his team. Bolton are having to re-adjust defensively following the departure of Gary Cahill. He was most often the deepest lying defender and particularly adept at winning offsides. The pace of Arsenal’s frontline will severely test out this new formation. Of course should the away side break Bolton’s line there are few in the league as efficient as van Persie at capitalising. I considered a wager in the asian handicap markets but I feel that Bolton will do well to score through their own efforts, the away side is likely to have a very large share of possession. At the same time Arsenal could gift them a free header from a set-piece and they could score from one of the few opportunites that arise. Arsenal on the other hand are very likely to find the net due to the number of chances they are capable of creating.

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Categories Football, Premier League

Premier League Review : January 21st

January 23, 2012 //
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Hard done by?

Plenty of controversy developed from the meeting of Man. City and Tottenham yesterday in what was one of the most intriguing match-ups of the season so far. It has been well argued as to whether either team got their just deserts from the game’s outcome. I am confident that Spurs didn’t deserve to win the game and can put a case forward that City merited the three points. Balotelli should have been sent off and the decision to allow him to stay on the field ultimately determined the game’s outcome.

But how is it possible to argue that City were deserved winners?

City managed to effect more shots at goal than Spurs did during the ninety plus minutes. As did Arsenal against Man. Utd in their clash. So, total shot count can prove to be a misleading statistic if taken literally. Close analysis of the shooting of the teams playing at the Etihad reveals a vivid picture. City fashioned ten shots at Spurs’ goal from 18 yards or less. In other words Tottenham were unable to stop City having a good number of potentially good quality efforts at their goal. Indeed, before City scored their first goal, five of their first six shots were from 12 yards or less. In contrast, the average shot distance of Spurs’ efforts was greater than 21 yards. Their first effort from less than 20 yards yielded their first goal. Overall City kept them at bay, only allowing the away side three efforts from within the box. A combination of excellent long range shooting and individual errors got Spurs back into the game. It is hard to argue that Spurs deserved to win the game when their own defence was so porous.

There is probably less debate over the merit of United’s victory at the Emirates. United were allowed to get nine shots away from 12 yards or less. It’s hard to argue that you deserve to take something from a game where you offer such little protection to your own goal. United only allowed Arsenal a handful of shots from within the box and only one of the Gunners’ first five shots was from a distance of less than 25 yards. Indeed the average of the Arsenal shooting distance was nearly twice than that of United’s.

I’m not sure that too many people were hard done by yesterday, save Scott Parker of course.

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Categories Football, Premier League

Premier League Preview : January 22nd

January 22, 2012 //
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Manchester City vs. Tottenham / Arsenal vs. Manchester United

The under and over goal quotes are very similar for both these matches. As a consequence much of the analysis for one will serve for the other.

After much tinkering with the number of likely goal attempts and different conversion rates I can come to only one conclusion. As the number of goals on the ‘over’ bets increases, the betting value decreases. I settled on both games having 20 attempts at goal combined with a conversion rate of 0.135. This brings the over 1.5 goals price of 1.29 as a starting point and if there is any accuracy in this price the over 2.5 and over 3.5 prices should be 1.92 and 3.56 respectively. The exchange prices at the time of writing are around 1.83 and 3.1 so it’s clear where the value doesn’t lie. If either game starts slowly I would expect those prices to drift rapidly.

Paddy Power are offering a refund on goalscorer and correct score markets if four or more goals are scored in the relevant match. Therefore it is around 4/5 that the special will cop in at least one of the games. For bettors who habitually play in these markets the special delivers a fair enough proposition and goes some way to explaining why liquidity has dried up on the exchanges in the first goalscorer markets.

It is noticeable how much pace is in the Man. City back-line to counter the threat of Bale, Defoe and Lennon. Spurs will rely on the accurate passing of Modric and Van der Vaart finding their targets if the away side is to make an impression on the game. City on the otherhand will be counting on Silva, Nasri and Aguero linking up and Spurs will have to remain compact in the centre to cut out the threat. The first goal will be crucial, if it goes to the home side Spurs will find it an uphill task to equalise.

This is a game to watch develop before any betting is advisable.

Mikel Arteta has been a vital component of Arsenal’s midfield this season. The contribution from his allround play and particularly his passing will be badly missed this afternoon. As a consequence I can envisage an open game with plenty of chances. In contrast to the Man. City and Tottenham teams there seems to be less pace in the rearguards in opposition at the Emirates. Goals are likely to be forthcoming seeing as the forward players are likely to have the edge here.

Recommended bet: Back over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

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Categories Football, Premier League