Chelsea vs. Birmingham

Chelsea are a short enough price at home to Championship side Birmingham to win this lunchtime’s F.A. Cup fixture. The home side looked particularly demotivated for their away trip to Everton last weekend and there is clearly unrest in the camp. The possible absence of Ashley Cole is significant as Chelsea do not have a workable replacement in the position and on the occasions he has been absent the backline has looked a shambles (no wins in his 5 absences from the starting lineup this season). John Terry is also likely to be absent particularly with a Champions’ League fixture in the offing. Had you asked Birmingham which one player would they like to see absent from the team sheet and the captain would have been the most likely reply. In these situations we have to ask whether the underdog has the ability to take advantage of the favourite’s predicament. Birmingham’s games against Wolves earlier in the competition were described at best as dire. They looked like two Championship sides in a contest of brawn rather than guile. Nathan Redmond is rare ray of light and looks a skillful player of much potential. His impact will depend on whether Birmingham can release him quickly enough and allow him to run against an isolated defender. Even so it remains that Chelsea have the better players. For all their woes it is easy to forget that Essien, Sturridge and Mata will line out for the home side and the issues for Chelsea are motivational and organisational rather than questions of ability. For the reasons stated it is impossible to make a forecast before kick-off and for those wanting to be involved in the betting, an in-running wager is probably the best course of action.

Norwich vs. Leicester

Norwich have been a revelation in the Premier League this season and currently lie eigth in the top division. In contrast Leicester find themselves just in the bottom half of the Championship. Paul Lambert clearly has his team well organised and combined with a fair efficiency in front of goal Norwich are set for a comfortable mid table finish at the least. Grant Holt has been in excellent form this season and was far too much for a lauded Swansea team to handle last weekend. He is ably assisted by the likes of Pilkington and Morison and the home team isn’t solely reliant on him to score the goals. I’m finding it hard to explain the apparent generosity of the layers in offering 10-11 on a Norwich victory. The better team is at home and playing very well. Leicester will be no pushovers but Norwich are the same price to beat them as Man. Utd were to beat Liverpool last weekend. It has to be argued that United and Liverpool are closer in ability than the opponents in this cup tie who find themselves a division apart.

Recommended bet: Back Norwich at 10-11.

Everton vs. Blackpool

This is potentially one of the more lively contests to be played this weekend. Indeed the over 2.5 goals market suggests there will be around 27 efforts at goals during the game. What will count ultimately is which side proves to be the more ruthless in front of goal. Everton’s new recruits have seen them to be more purposeful and therefore the absences of Pienaar and Donovan will be a loss. With the two aforementioned players along with Cahill and Gibson, Everton had the makings of a vibrant midfield that would, over ninety minutes, been too much for Blackpool. In contrast there is not a lot of pace at the back for Everton and this is why I suspect that Blackpool will engage in an open attacking game to facilitate situations where Everton’s midfield cover are out of place. Blackpool are certainly in confident mood having won four of their last 5 games but surely Everton’s form at home in their last three fixtures of beating Chelsea, Man. City and Fulham amounts to more. Again the Premier League team probably has more ability and it is only the fact that the absentees are likely to prove significant that I will not be backing Everton at 8/15. Equally I wont be taking them on.

Sunderland vs. Arsenal

Arsenal need to come with a wealth warning attached to them at present. When they fancy playing they can still be hugely effective but when the mood doesn’t take them, they can be abject. On the face of it their league victory at the Stadium of Light looks a decent bit of form but I suspect that the result had more to do with Sunderland’s limitations rather than Arsenal’s ability. Swansea probably should have left the North East with a result having dominated a recent league fixture up there but they were caught chasing the game and couldn’t finish their own chances. Van Persie is having to carry the away side virtually single handed. Many of his goals he has created out of very little and typically not because the service has been conducive to goalscoring. Arsenal have been shorn of their centre backs which didn’t look to be too much of a disadvantage in midweek until we witnessed how inept the replacements were and how out of practice the fullbacks appeared to be. But wishing to remain objective they are unlikley to come up against the quality of Ibrahimovic and Robinho this evening and I do suspect they made Boeteng look a bit better than he actually is. Sunderland will no doubt play a pressing game to test the confidence of this Arsenal side but should they over stretch themselves Arsenal’s counterattack players could cause them some damage. The over goals markets do suggest an open game. Again this is a contest where before kick off it is hard to have a definitive view. It has to be remembered that Sunderland will not be able to sustain a pressing effort for the entire game and if Arsenal are still at parity they could yet again land a late blow.