Hard done by?

Plenty of controversy developed from the meeting of Man. City and Tottenham yesterday in what was one of the most intriguing match-ups of the season so far. It has been well argued as to whether either team got their just deserts from the game’s outcome. I am confident that Spurs didn’t deserve to win the game and can put a case forward that City merited the three points. Balotelli should have been sent off and the decision to allow him to stay on the field ultimately determined the game’s outcome.

But how is it possible to argue that City were deserved winners?

City managed to effect more shots at goal than Spurs did during the ninety plus minutes. As did Arsenal against Man. Utd in their clash. So, total shot count can prove to be a misleading statistic if taken literally. Close analysis of the shooting of the teams playing at the Etihad reveals a vivid picture. City fashioned ten shots at Spurs’ goal from 18 yards or less. In other words Tottenham were unable to stop City having a good number of potentially good quality efforts at their goal. Indeed, before City scored their first goal, five of their first six shots were from 12 yards or less. In contrast, the average shot distance of Spurs’ efforts was greater than 21 yards. Their first effort from less than 20 yards yielded their first goal. Overall City kept them at bay, only allowing the away side three efforts from within the box. A combination of excellent long range shooting and individual errors got Spurs back into the game. It is hard to argue that Spurs deserved to win the game when their own defence was so porous.

There is probably less debate over the merit of United’s victory at the Emirates. United were allowed to get nine shots away from 12 yards or less. It’s hard to argue that you deserve to take something from a game where you offer such little protection to your own goal. United only allowed Arsenal a handful of shots from within the box and only one of the Gunners’ first five shots was from a distance of less than 25 yards. Indeed the average of the Arsenal shooting distance was nearly twice than that of United’s.

I’m not sure that too many people were hard done by yesterday, save Scott Parker of course.

Manchester City vs. Tottenham / Arsenal vs. Manchester United

The under and over goal quotes are very similar for both these matches. As a consequence much of the analysis for one will serve for the other.

After much tinkering with the number of likely goal attempts and different conversion rates I can come to only one conclusion. As the number of goals on the ‘over’ bets increases, the betting value decreases. I settled on both games having 20 attempts at goal combined with a conversion rate of 0.135. This brings the over 1.5 goals price of 1.29 as a starting point and if there is any accuracy in this price the over 2.5 and over 3.5 prices should be 1.92 and 3.56 respectively. The exchange prices at the time of writing are around 1.83 and 3.1 so it’s clear where the value doesn’t lie. If either game starts slowly I would expect those prices to drift rapidly.

Paddy Power are offering a refund on goalscorer and correct score markets if four or more goals are scored in the relevant match. Therefore it is around 4/5 that the special will cop in at least one of the games. For bettors who habitually play in these markets the special delivers a fair enough proposition and goes some way to explaining why liquidity has dried up on the exchanges in the first goalscorer markets.

It is noticeable how much pace is in the Man. City back-line to counter the threat of Bale, Defoe and Lennon. Spurs will rely on the accurate passing of Modric and Van der Vaart finding their targets if the away side is to make an impression on the game. City on the otherhand will be counting on Silva, Nasri and Aguero linking up and Spurs will have to remain compact in the centre to cut out the threat. The first goal will be crucial, if it goes to the home side Spurs will find it an uphill task to equalise.

This is a game to watch develop before any betting is advisable.

Mikel Arteta has been a vital component of Arsenal’s midfield this season. The contribution from his allround play and particularly his passing will be badly missed this afternoon. As a consequence I can envisage an open game with plenty of chances. In contrast to the Man. City and Tottenham teams there seems to be less pace in the rearguards in opposition at the Emirates. Goals are likely to be forthcoming seeing as the forward players are likely to have the edge here.

Recommended bet: Back over 1.5 goals at 1.29.