Archives for posts with tag: Manchester United

Premier League Preview : February 11th

February 11, 2012 //
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We are getting to the point in the season where clubs are looking to build momentum going into the deciding phase of the campaign. Every weekend seems to provide a list of intriguing fixtures which are becoming increasingly difficult to call.

Manchester United v. Liverpool

These two sides recently met at Anfield in the F.A. Cup and despite enjoying large periods of possession United did not emerge victorious. Liverpool applied pressure with set pieces early in the game and gradually got themselves back into the contest late on to secure the win. For the middle portion of the contest United were dominant and merited their equalising goal. This game will be largely be determined by how the speedier players on the park perform. There is very little pace at the centre of either defence. Liverpool appeared to be chasing shadows against Tottenham’s midfield on Monday night and it could be a similar story here. It is undoubted that United will enjoy the majority of the possession. They also have the personnel to utilise it in the attacking third of the field. Even so there is a lingering doubt that a well aimed pass over the top will find the likes of Suarez or Bellamy isolated against one of United’s slower defenders. That said, United will spend an awful lot of time probing Liverpool’s flanks and as a result it is hard to see the away side winning this seeing as United are very likely to score. The respective vastly differing conversion rates also support this.

Recommended bet: Back Man. United, draw no bet.

Everton vs. Chelsea

Everton appear to be lifted by the arrival of their new signings and as is traditional at Goodison the midfield has a particularly robust look to it. Landon Donovan has added some much needed guile and they will be hoping that Jelavic will benefit from his input. Chelsea remain an enigma. There are passages throughout games where they play very well, which is hardly a surprise given the quality of the personnel. But more often than not they don’t put the complete performance together. Everton are likely to take the game to Chelsea following the frailties that were on show last Sunday. Ironically this may be to the away side’s advantage. They would like nothing more than to have Sturridge and Torres in a running match against the Everton central defence. The side benefit being that Sturridge will be deployed to pin back the forward advances of Baines. Juan Mata continues to impress without the support he could expect. Had Torres been the goal threat of old, I would have almost fancied Chelsea to win this fixture since the away side could have been good for at least a couple of goals. They would need that sort of cushion seeing as Everton will be keen to test out the newly constructed Chelsea defence. Given the relatively low goal chance conversion rates of both sides, the bookmakers have priced the goal markets up with around 23 chances in mind. With neither side with much reason to hold back it is very possible both teams will score. 5/6 can be considered the right price if the goal chances are shared approximately equally.

Recommended bet: Both teams to score at 5/6 or better.

Tottenham vs. Newcastle

The bookmakers clearly believe that this will be a high scoring affair, probably with a minimum of 24 attempts at goal. Tottenham controlled large parts of the game at Anfield on Monday night and could deprive Newcastle of much of the possession. It will be interesting to see if Newcastle start with just the one up front. If this does not prove to be the case, they will find themselves overmatched in midfield. Spurs are as good as any team in the division in this department. Newcastle’s forward players could find themselves isolated and their defence will be hard pressed to keep the home side at bay. Whether Tottenham attack down the flanks or engage in long range shooting, Newcastle will be wary. In Demba Ba Newcastle clearly have a match winner but it will be a case of them being able to support him effectively whilst not leaving themselves open to the counter attack. The pace of Chelsea’s Sturridge and Drogba was all too much for Newcastle on their home ground before Christmas. There isn’t a great deal of speed in the backline to counter the threat of Bale, Lennon or Defoe. Interestingly, Ladbrokes stand out on their own at 2-1 on the over 3.5 goals which is an accurate reflection of the probabilities if there are to be 24 attempts at goal. The same firm also offer the concession that they will refund selected bets on the game if Ba scores at any time. With two viable chances the concession is around 10-3 to click and around 2-1 if he sees three real chances. Ladbrokes themselves feel he’ll have two and a half!

Sunderland vs. Arsenal

Sunderland’s resurgence has been well reported and Arsenal remain fabulously inconsistent. Sunderland recorded an ultimately convincing 2-0 victory over Swansea not so long ago but it was the Swans who dominated possession and had Sunderland chasing for much of the game. On their day Arsenal are well able to give out a similar lesson but in contrast the Gunners have the firepower to convert possession into goals. Van Persie continues to break records and there’s plenty of pace around to support him. Much of the same can be said of Campbell and Sessegnon who will give the Arsenal defence plenty to think about. The over goals markets suggest that there will be 24 attempts at goal throughout the game and it’s not hard to imagine that Martin O’Neill’s side will push forward early on. They are safely in mid-table and are now looking to advance their position. This will be a game of chances and could literally end up any score.

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Categories Football, Premier League

Premier League Preview : February 4th

February 3, 2012 //
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Arsenal vs. Blackburn

Arsenal continue to stutter throughout their campaign. Indeed, they were better than 20-1 to only win one of their last six league games and their malaise is statistically significant. Blackburn have been very remarkable in their inconsistency and were probably hard done by to come away from Ewood Park with nothing during the week, having bombarded Newcastle for much of the game. Van Persie remains Arsenal’s only reliable route to goal. Modeste has the potential to make an impact with his pace against Arsenal’s backline and he can be classed as efficient as the rest of Blackburn’s forwards. Set pieces still remain a hazard for the home team but Blackburn could find themselves only receiving half a dozen viable scoring chances, so it’s hard to be confident that they will contribute to the scoring. Bookmakers offer a diverse range of prices on the over 3.5 goals market. The spread starts at 6/5 and goes out to 11/8. If the 8/15 for over 2.5 goals is realistic, based on 25 chances at the posts, 11/8 is only marginally an unfair prospect. Given Arsenal’s possible slow start to the game, the +2 asian handicap bet on Blackburn at 3/5 is a workable proposition. Blackburn have as good a record on the road as they do at home.

Recommended bet: Blackburn (+2) Asian Handicap, 3/5.

Newcastle vs. Aston Villa

Villa started tremendously well against Arsenal in the Cup last weekend before they yielded far too many chances for it to be realistic for them to hold on in the game. Darren Bent has struck a great seam of form and continued his record of scoring against top class opposition. Robbie Keane has added firepower to a team that has not been known for it’s scoring this season. So it is fair to say that they provide action at both ends of the field. Newcastle welcome back their topscorer, Demba Ba, and a new number nine in Cisse. Both will be relieved to be back playing for a outfit that has been properly prepared in contrast to the Senegal team that they were unable to assist at the African Cup of Nations. As is usually the case, the price for over 1.5 goals presents better value than the over 3.5 goals quote. With quality strikers on show for both sides and a 24 projected attempts, these factors combined should see at least two goals being scored in the game.

Recommended bet: over 1.5 goals at 1/3.

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Categories Football, Premier League

Premier League Preview : January 31st

January 31, 2012 //
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Manchester United v. Stoke City

United are a fairly short order to beat Stoke at Old Trafford tonight even though their price has drifted to a best price of 4/11. It doesn’t look as poor value a price as the 2/5 Liverpool were to beat the Potters at Anfield a few weeks ago. The difference being is that United have at least a handful of potential goalscorers in form at present. In my opinion Antonio Valencia is possibly the most effective right sided attacker operating in the league at present. Welbeck, Scholes, Giggs and Carrick are all playing close to their potential also. United dominated the possession statistics for long spells of play at Anfield on Saturday and there is the potential this evening for them to record unearthly numbers in that department. Stoke have earned a reputation for solidity but their defence is far from impenetrable. It is most usual that they allow the opposition at least 6 opportunities to shoot at goal from inside the box over the ninety minutes. Granted that United are threatening to display defensive frailties but should Etherington be absent for Stoke, some of the threat will subside. Despite the numerous absentees from United’s panel, they are still able to field the better players this evening.

Recommended bet: Man. Utd to beat Stoke, 4/11.

Tottenham v. Wigan Athletic

Tottenham probably got away with one last Friday night at Watford. They were unusually quiet offensively, probably due to the absence of their excellent wide players, and they allowed Watford close to a dozen decent sights at their goal. Had Watford had genuine Premier League quality in their front line they would have had enough chances to win the game comfortably. It remains to be seen if Wigan will be able to capitalise on any similar generosity from Spurs. Absences will shape people’s thinking on how this match will play out. It is likely that Defoe and Lennon, two of Tottenham’s more mobile players, will not play. Rodellega of Wigan has been the subject of much transfer speculation over the past days and may have played his last game for the club. Diame is still away on African Cup of Nations duty and his tackling will be missed. The view of the bookmakers is that goal chances will be plentiful. Allowing for 26 efforts at goal and a conversion rate of just over 12 %, over 3.5 goals should be priced at close to 6-4. Most quotes are below this and some are as short as 6-5. An over 2.5 goals quote of 4-7 is more in line with the actual probablities. Even so, with the ever increasing variables associated with this fixture, a wager can not be confidently recommended.

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Categories Football, Premier League

Premier League Review : January 21st

January 23, 2012 //
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Hard done by?

Plenty of controversy developed from the meeting of Man. City and Tottenham yesterday in what was one of the most intriguing match-ups of the season so far. It has been well argued as to whether either team got their just deserts from the game’s outcome. I am confident that Spurs didn’t deserve to win the game and can put a case forward that City merited the three points. Balotelli should have been sent off and the decision to allow him to stay on the field ultimately determined the game’s outcome.

But how is it possible to argue that City were deserved winners?

City managed to effect more shots at goal than Spurs did during the ninety plus minutes. As did Arsenal against Man. Utd in their clash. So, total shot count can prove to be a misleading statistic if taken literally. Close analysis of the shooting of the teams playing at the Etihad reveals a vivid picture. City fashioned ten shots at Spurs’ goal from 18 yards or less. In other words Tottenham were unable to stop City having a good number of potentially good quality efforts at their goal. Indeed, before City scored their first goal, five of their first six shots were from 12 yards or less. In contrast, the average shot distance of Spurs’ efforts was greater than 21 yards. Their first effort from less than 20 yards yielded their first goal. Overall City kept them at bay, only allowing the away side three efforts from within the box. A combination of excellent long range shooting and individual errors got Spurs back into the game. It is hard to argue that Spurs deserved to win the game when their own defence was so porous.

There is probably less debate over the merit of United’s victory at the Emirates. United were allowed to get nine shots away from 12 yards or less. It’s hard to argue that you deserve to take something from a game where you offer such little protection to your own goal. United only allowed Arsenal a handful of shots from within the box and only one of the Gunners’ first five shots was from a distance of less than 25 yards. Indeed the average of the Arsenal shooting distance was nearly twice than that of United’s.

I’m not sure that too many people were hard done by yesterday, save Scott Parker of course.

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Categories Football, Premier League

Premier League Preview : January 22nd

January 22, 2012 //
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Manchester City vs. Tottenham / Arsenal vs. Manchester United

The under and over goal quotes are very similar for both these matches. As a consequence much of the analysis for one will serve for the other.

After much tinkering with the number of likely goal attempts and different conversion rates I can come to only one conclusion. As the number of goals on the ‘over’ bets increases, the betting value decreases. I settled on both games having 20 attempts at goal combined with a conversion rate of 0.135. This brings the over 1.5 goals price of 1.29 as a starting point and if there is any accuracy in this price the over 2.5 and over 3.5 prices should be 1.92 and 3.56 respectively. The exchange prices at the time of writing are around 1.83 and 3.1 so it’s clear where the value doesn’t lie. If either game starts slowly I would expect those prices to drift rapidly.

Paddy Power are offering a refund on goalscorer and correct score markets if four or more goals are scored in the relevant match. Therefore it is around 4/5 that the special will cop in at least one of the games. For bettors who habitually play in these markets the special delivers a fair enough proposition and goes some way to explaining why liquidity has dried up on the exchanges in the first goalscorer markets.

It is noticeable how much pace is in the Man. City back-line to counter the threat of Bale, Defoe and Lennon. Spurs will rely on the accurate passing of Modric and Van der Vaart finding their targets if the away side is to make an impression on the game. City on the otherhand will be counting on Silva, Nasri and Aguero linking up and Spurs will have to remain compact in the centre to cut out the threat. The first goal will be crucial, if it goes to the home side Spurs will find it an uphill task to equalise.

This is a game to watch develop before any betting is advisable.

Mikel Arteta has been a vital component of Arsenal’s midfield this season. The contribution from his allround play and particularly his passing will be badly missed this afternoon. As a consequence I can envisage an open game with plenty of chances. In contrast to the Man. City and Tottenham teams there seems to be less pace in the rearguards in opposition at the Emirates. Goals are likely to be forthcoming seeing as the forward players are likely to have the edge here.

Recommended bet: Back over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

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Categories Football, Premier League

Premier League Preview : January 14th

January 14, 2012 //
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Manchester United vs. Bolton

This fixture involves two teams situated at opposite ends of the table but they have been equally inconsistent over the last half dozen games. The over 2.5 goals quote of 4/11 implies there will be around 28 goal attempts in the game assuming United create the majority of the chances and maintain a better than 13% conversion rate. Klasnic remains Bolton’s most effective offensive player by some margin and should he be absent for any particular reason the away side would struggle to register on the scoreboard. The 1/10 about over 1.5 goals and the 10/11 about over 3.5 goals represent worse value than the over 2.5 goals price. Given his excellent recent form Antonio Valencia is likely to provide at least one stunning opportunity for a United forward to score.

Recommended bet: Back over 2.5 goals at 4/11

 

Liverpool vs. Stoke

These are essentially two top eight teams but the prices in the win market doesn’t reflect this fact. Liverpool are as short as 2/5 to win the game in contrast to the 4/7 Tottenham were to beat Everton during the week. Tottenham are being talked of as genuine title contenders while Liverpool are odds against to finish in the top four. It’s argueable that Stoke would provide a sterner test than Everton at present. Liverpool’s excellent defensive record is based on their ability to shut out teams from the lower half of the division a fact which would not appear be to relevant to their encounter with Stoke. Stoke on the other hand have had difficulty scoring against top half opposite and live on the edge in terms of the needing to convert from the few chances they do create. The enforced absence of Suarez is to Stoke’s advantage as they are a team that would prefer to defend the high ball with their backs to goals and the inclusion of the inform Peter Crouch would also be greatly to their benefit. This is likely to be a closer encounter than the betting suggests and I don’t see Stoke being left too far behind.

Recommended bet: Stoke (+1) Asian Handicap at 11/10

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Categories Football, Premier League

FA Cup 3rd Round Weekend

January 7, 2012 //
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FA Cup weekend brings together teams of widely differing abilities. We have opted to focus on ties where the skill levels of teams are largely equal or where home advantage may be enough to negate differences.  


Manchester City vs. Manchester United

It is not expected that United will be over-exuberant in their approach and confidence will need to be restored. As a result the away defence is likely to be tightened and with the loss of City’s influential Yaya Toure, goal attempts may not be abundant. With both team’s excellent efficiency in front of goal only 20 attempts need be accounted for to make sense of the bookmakers’ total goal prices. These prices remain consistent as the goal totals increase and none of the higher ‘over’ prices become any worse value than the others.

Newcastle vs. Blackburn

If both sides maintain an 11% goal chance conversion rate, 26 attempts at goal are needed to justify the prices issued in the over 1.5 and 2.5 goals markets. With the absence of Newcastle’s Demba Ba it is hard to believe that normal service will be realised and any over 3.5 goals quote of 2-1 or less looks particularly bad value.

Recommended bet: Lay over 3.5 goals at 3.05 or less.

Birmingham vs. Wolverhampton

The bookmakers are expecting a very lively Midlands derby seeing as around 27 attempts at goal is the figure needed to make sense of the ‘over’ goals markets. Some of the over 3.5 goals quotes are at least in line with the lower totals and the layers must feel that while attempts may be numerous, efficiency will be lacking in this lunchtime fixture.

Peterborough vs. Sunderland

A staggering 30 attempts at goal will be needed to ensure that the ‘over’ goals bets are in any way a fair proposition. This assumes that both sides enjoy a combined 10% conversion rate and if not, that Sunderland will create the vast majority of the opportunities to score. If the over 1.5 and over 2.5 goal prices are of questionable value, any quote for over 3.5 goals of less than 2.8 is to be avoided.

Recommended bet: Lay over 3.5 goals at 2.82 or less.

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Categories FA Cup, Football