Archives for posts with tag: National Hunt

Navan Preview : February 19th

February 19, 2012 //
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Flyingbolt Novice Chase

The Flyingbolt Novice ‘Chase at Navan this afternoon catches the eye from a betting standpoint. There are only three likely winners in the field of seven runners and one of the main contenders, NEAREST THE PIN, is a horse that I’ve been keeping a close eye on this season. There was no attempt to hide his ability at the Christmas Leopardstown meeting where he was competitive against highly rated opponents in a novice ‘chase. He’s a horse with plenty of gears and it can only be hoped that the ground isn’t too testing this afternoon. On a genuinely good surface he would be a 6-4 shot. The other two likely protagonists are CARLOSWAYBACK and FOILDUBH. FOILDUBH had shown a high level of consistency before finding the heavy ground at Leopardstown not to his liking. He has been competitive against a good grade of runner for much of the season and cannot be discounted in a grade two race. CARLOSWAYBACK, I confess is a horse I don’t know too much about but he appears progressive clearly stays further than the minimum trip. He was only a 7-1 shot to win the grade one Royal Bond in his novice hurdle days. The opposition includes DONNAS PALM who has looked far from comfortable over the larger obstacles since his switch to fencing and FAR AWAY SO CLOSE. The latter just doesn’t seem to see the trip out and has traded at very short odds on more than one occasion before finding less than expected. By also betting in the without the favourite market two of the proposed bets can be winners.

Recommended bets:

Navan 4:00 Back NEAREST THE PIN

Navan 4:00 Without the favourite, Back FOILDUBH

Navan 4:00 Without the favourite, Back CARLOSWAYBACK.

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Categories Horse Racing, National Hunt

Newbury Preview : February 17th

February 17, 2012 //
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Newbury’s excellent Super Saturday card finally gets the go ahead with some both potentially exciting and informative contests scheduled. ZARKANDAR makes his reappearance ahead of a planned tilt at the Champion Hurdle. The fact remains he looks at least fairly handicapped in the context of his Triumph Hurdle form. The placed horses that day, Unaccompanied and Grandouet, have since won in graded company against their elders. It is highly unlikely that ZARKANDAR will get into what is the more richly endowed handicap hurdle in Europe off this rating ever again. With Cheltenham only a month away he is not going to be far away from full fitness particularly as he recently has had a racecourse gallop as part of his preparation. 3-1 is probably a square enough price but if the value is debatable, there’s little doubt that he should be favourite. There’s probably only three other entrants that really fancy their chances. Put another, ZARKANDAR is only around double the price to beat Hurricane Fly et al. at Cheltenham next month and it’s unlikely that any of tomorrow’s opponents will be there for the rematch.

The form of the Cheltenham RSA Novice ‘Chase 2010 has been phenomenal. LONG RUN won both last season’s championship events and Diamond Harry and Little Josh won the two major pre-Christmas handicap ‘chases. BURTON PORT was a respectable second to Diamond Harry at Newbury and now makes his first appearance since November 2010. He remains a representative of a very decent vintage and the fact he runs against the Gold Cup favourite, we will be wiser as to his prospects at Cheltenham. Taking a very small bet on him at 33-1 with Betfred for the Gold Cup has its advantages. The firm are offering non-runner, no bet and therefore if today is a complete blow out he will not run at the Festival and hence a refund will be due. Of course if he runs LONG RUN close, his price will contract.

Recommended bets:

1:15 Newbury ZARKANDAR

Cheltenham Gold Cup: BURTON PORT, 33-1 Betfred, non-runner, no bet.

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Categories Horse Racing, National Hunt

Leopardstown Preview : February 12th

February 11, 2012 //
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Leopardstown’s Hennessy meeting is set to take place on easing underfoot conditions with a mixed forecast.

The juvenile hurdlers open the card in what promises to be a competitive Triumph Hurdle trial. UT DE SIVOLA has been proficient in winning his first two hurdle starts in Ireland with noticeable quick jumping. Even though he is not a flat-bred, his jumps winning sire is noted for producing precocious National Hunt types. The better pace to this race will suit him compared to the relative crawl of his previous outing. HIS EXCELLENCY took the honours here at Christmas in a grade two event. He is notoriously quirky and is set to be ridden to deliver a late challenge once again. He is hard to rule out of the places in the event of a collapsing pace. I just get the feeling that if one of these is to progress and be a live contender for the main event at Cheltenham, it will be UT DE SIVOLA.

The second grade one novice hurdle event has not attracted the same quantity as the first but the quality is up to scratch. Again Willie Mullins supplies the favourite for the contest in the shape of SOUS LES CIEUX. He was an impressive winner at Fairyhouse in December before proving a shade disappointing back here at Christmas. He was not the first horse to have the edge knocked off him by winning the Royal Bond and then reappearing shortly after. The better ground would have also been against him but even in victory he has looked one paced and could prove vulnerable to horses with a turn of pace. Extremely heavy ground would go someway to negating his lack of foot but as conditions stand he will find winning this difficult. CASH AND GO was the victor here at Christmas using his change of pace to come clear with the runner-up. I get the sense that he would not be carrying the ‘Back In Front’ level of confidence from the stable heading to a Supreme Novice Hurdle. But that is a subjective point of view and his overall record is convincing. If SOUS LES CIEUX has a vulnerability to a slowly run contest, CAPTAIN CONAN has shown some aptitude to winning in such circumstances in taking the Tolworth Hurdle. It can be argued that had COLOUR SQUADRON not hung across the track, CAPTAIN CONAN would have had to settle for the runner-up slot. In winning a listed contest at Punchestown LORD WINDERMERE marked himself down as a very useful recruit. He virtually refused to canter to the start and then during the race he looked very green and thought about ducking out coming to the last. Even so, he still managed to prevail against more experienced opponents.

The novice ‘chasers take their chance in the Dr. P.J.Moriarty ‘Chase over an intermediate distance. We are virtually guaranteed a strong pace here since there are slight concerns for LAST INSTALMENT dropping back in trip. He is likely to be prominent early on and his accurate jumping will apply pressure. LAMBRO‘s form has received a boost when the horse he followed home at Naas, FLEMENSTAR, convincingly took the Arkle ‘Chase at Leopardstown. He steps up in trip which may well garner improvement. The others are solid horses who may well have their day but are unlikely to be contending in the Cheltenham championship events.

The feature race, The Hennessy Gold Cup, has unfortunately lost a few dimensions with the absentees but tomorrow’s winner will be none too concerned over that. QUEL ESPRIT seems to have been around a while and it is hard to believe that he is still only eight and as a result we may not have seen the best of him yet. Much has been said about his short price especially for a horse that had difficulty in completing the course for much of last season. A number of the remainder of the field have been equipped with various items of headgear in order to aid concentration or willing, which hardly smacks of encouragement. This could be a case of who enjoys getting into a decent rhythm will go a long way to winning this. CHINA ROCK is on the comeback trail and his hurdling prep had positive aspects to it. There is a suspicion that he doesn’t quite get home over the trip but in a race in which anything could win should the favourite suffer misadventure it is hard to rule anyone out.

Recommended bets:

Leopardstown 13:05, UT DE SIVOLA at 5-2.
Leopardstown 13:05 without the favourite, HIS EXCELLENCY each way at 9-1.

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Categories Horse Racing, National Hunt

Leopardstown Review : January 28-29th

January 31, 2012 //
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Leopardstown’s two day meeting provided its share of spectacles and memorable performances. SIR DES CHAMPS recorded the first graded race victory of the weekend when somehow finding a way to win the grade two novice ‘chase. He is beginning to look like a horse that just about does enough in winning. It may not always be pleasing on the eye but the fact remains he is unbeaten since relocating to his Irish stable and already numbers a Cheltenham Festival success amongst his wins. He has cemented his position on the list of likely novice ‘chase winners at this year’s Festival especially in light of Saturday’s weight carrying performance. HIDDEN CYCLONE‘s drift in the betting before the race didn’t auger well and he put up a bizarre performance. His fencing was less than accurate but even so, he looked likely to prevail turning into the homestraight before running around, seemingly less than fully concentrating on the task in hand. He may still be in need of experience before facing more accomplished rivals. Reportedly CITIZENSHIP had everything go wrong in the Boylesports.com Hurdle before landing the prize. Clearly he remains progressive but there is some debate as to whether he won a strong renewal of the race and it will be interesting to see how he copes with a rise in class. It is possible that he has started to turn a corner but with his career record of only 4 wins from 30 attempts his profile is less than convincing. A horse with no such problems is the winner of the Leopardstown Handicap ‘Chase, SEABASS, who now boasts a near 50 % wins to runs record over fences. His biggest obstacle on the day appeared to be a loose horse which preceded him for much of the race but when he was set down on the run-in he showed a determined attitude to win decisively.

As well reported conditions changed markedly leading up to Sunday’s card. Rain persistently fell at the course before and throughout racing. The strong looking mare, BURN AND TURN initiated an opening race double for the sire Flemensfirth when staying on well enough to land the maiden hurdle. With a win in the bumper field and over hurdles she is now a valuable commodity. Another foray into graded company could now be expected but should she line up in a handicap race it will be well worth taking note. FLEMENSTAR dominating in winning the Frank Ward Arkle ‘Chase. The underfoot surface had eased well beyond the degree to which he would have felt necessary to show his best. His jumping was particularly convincing and down the backstraight he was noticeably fast over at least one of the obstacles. His form ties in conveniently with the another genuinely exciting prospect, BOG WARRIOR.

HURRICANE FLY did not disappoint those who had braved the elements to witness his return to action in the Irish Champion Hurdle. In what was a measured display he could be counted as the winner even before turning for home. He powered home after taking the last flight and appears to be on course to defend his Cheltenham title. OSCARS WELL again showed improvement to finally master THOUSAND STARS on the course but they are all in a different division compared to the favourite for the race in March. BOSTON BOB emulated his stablemate SIR DES CHAMPS in carrying a substantial penalty to victory, on this occasion in the grade two novice hurdle. In the field, BOSTON BOB and SEA OF THUNDER had the most obvious physiques that would enable them to adapt to ‘chasing in future. Both had size and substance but the winner showed abundant class in giving LYREEN WONDER a five length headstart approaching the the final hurdle and a convincing beating at the line. The pace was moderate up to the third last hurdle. By then visibility had been much reduced by the enclosing mist. The race itself turned into a sprint for home and MAKE YOUR MARK made up a lot of ground out wide to arrive in contention before tiring in the homestraight. In all probability he needs time to develop into the horse people hope he can become. There was plenty of backing for TOUCH BACK before the race as his odds halved in the betting. Strangely he was anchored in rear and could never become involved in the race itself. In view of the confidence that has already been placed in him he still warrants notice wherever he reappears next.

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Categories Horse Racing, National Hunt

Leopardstown Preview : January 29th

January 28, 2012 //
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The maiden hurdle which opens the card on the second day of Leopardstown’s mini-festival has attracted an intriguing set of entries. BURN AND TURN is a hard pulling type and will benefit from strong handling. The better ground will give him a chance of getting home. THOMAS EDISON has already been lauded on this site for his effort at Christmas. Clearly others were impressed and he has been purchased by Champion owner, J.P. McManus. TENNIS CAP hails from the all winning Mullins’ stable and merits respect since the yard has already bagged the two novice events here this weekend. The trainer’s recent run of form is noteworthy and it’s worth breaking down the numbers to reveal their significance. Over the last three completed seasons the Mullins’ horses have won nearly 25.5 % of their entries in Ireland. Including yesterday’s results this season’s strike rate stands at close on 31 %. It is highly unlikely that the stable remains a 25.5 % outfit but more efficient. Put another way, a 25.5 % yard would be bigger than 50-1 to post the sequence of winners and runners that the Willie Mullins team has put up since the first week of May. The recent effort over the last fortnight would rate as nearly a 43-1 shot for a stable with the capability of producing 25.5% winners to runners over a season. The conclusion is that Mullins has been outperforming since the beginning of the season rather than just over the past few weeks and to a higher degree. This points to a significant change surrounding the operation, possibly due to the influx of the Gigginstown and Wylie horses.

All concerned with the Frank Ward Arkle Novice ‘Chase have a keen eye trained on the weather. BLACKSTAIRMOUNTAIN was the victor when the majority of the field assembled here last month. He was the class of this field over hurdles and has made an impressive transition to the fencing sphere. He is such a good traveller on good ground that rain would not enhance his chance. Connections of FLEMENSTAR seem to be those who would appreciate rainfall most of all. This powerfully built gelding is the unknown quantity in the race and bar the favourite looks the most likely to graduate to championship level. Rain would also benefit NOTUS DE LA TOUR in his attempt to reverse form with BLACKSTAIRMOUNTAIN. Interestingly, he was shipped to race at Auteil back in June on forecast very testing ground. Surely he would never have set sail for France if he wasn’t at least ambivalent to soft underfoot conditions.

The Irish Champion Hurdle sees the eagerly awaited return of HURRICANE FLY. The result and the betting on the race revolves around him. Unless a bettor is in possession of reliable inside information, this is fantastic race to be watching. Only the filly, UNACCOMPANIED, on account of her generous weight allowance could inflict an honourable defeat on the favourite. The rest of the field have not shown the ability to beat an in-form HURRICANE FLY. An unimpressive performance could well see challengers diverted from the World Hurdle to the Champion Hurdle at the Festival, seeing as BIG BUCKS did little in winning the Cleeve Hurdle to persuade anyone further to take him on.

Singularly, the grade two novice hurdle is the race I’ve been looking forward most to seeing all weekend. There are at least four entrants due to race that have immense potential. SEA OF THUNDER looked set to run away with the Albert Bartlett hurdle at Cheltenham before blundering at the last. He had pricked his ears well before the flight and I suspect that the very close promixity of spectators and a television camera near the running rail had much to do with this. Another last hurdle leader at the same meeting found themselves in a similar predicament. The performance as a whole marked SEA OF THUNDER down as a live contender for the Festival edition of the Albert Bartlett. TOUCH BACK is highly regarded and he will add value to the form. This is a very stiff assignment for a second run over hurdles and only time will tell if he’s ready for such a steep rise in class. BOSTON BOB is the proven graded race winner in the field and as a consequence has a penalty to carry. If he can run away from this field under his burden, he will just about win the novice event of his choosing at Cheltenham. It’s hard to crab his progression but he could well put up an immense effort and still find one of these to beat him. At level weights he could well have been an odds on shot in the betting. MAKE YOUR MARK is the horse in the race that I would be most confident, that given even luck, will be in future be plying his trade in the highest class. There will be some long faces tomorrow if he doesn’t go at least close to winning this event.

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Categories Horse Racing, National Hunt

Thyestes Handicap Chase Preview

January 26, 2012 //
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The Thyestes Handicap ‘Chase is the first of the big prizes to be contested here in Ireland this week and as expected a numerous and competitive field has been assembled. Many of the runners contested the Paddy Power Handicap at Leopardstown in December, which in contrast to today’s race was run on good ground. Gowran is a course where the ground can turn heavy rapidly and the fences require much concentration if they are to be negotiated safely.

The market is headed up by two relative novices in GLAM GERRY and START ME UP. Both ran solid races in handicap company last time out but neither of their rounds of jumping were blemish free. ADAMS ISLAND has come in for support late on but at around 8-1, does he really have half the chance that ZARKANDAR has in the Betfair Hurdle, a horse we know is progressive and potentially very well handicapped? The Mullins stable is again well represented in a valuable handicap ‘chase. SHAKERVILZ is the best of the entry but unfortunately he has the weight to prove it. I wasn’t overly impressed with SOME TARGET’s fencing at Leopardstown, in a race in which ON HIS OWN was brought down once beaten. I believe ON HIS OWN remains a horse of great potential but it has to be wondered if this afternoon’s slog will bring out the best in him. QUADRILLON jumped nicely and held a prominent position until being outpaced two from home in the same Leopardstown contest. The good ground that day would have been against him and with a very handy racing weight he can be competitive. On the two occasions he has run this season he has been pitched into fiercely competitive handicaps suggesting that those closest to him still feel he has potential to progress. His price is better than 40-1 on the exchanges and therefore qualifies as a speculative each way selection.

Recommended bet: 3:05 Gowran Park, QUADRILLON 25-1 or better, each way.

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Categories Horse Racing, National Hunt

Victor Chandler Chase Review

January 22, 2012 //
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The Victor Chander ‘Chase lived up to its billing as a spectacle. SOMERSBY delivered, as he had threatened to do, at top level and FINIAN’S RAINBOW probably posted a career best performance in finishing second. By now, these two high class horses probably hold few secrets from us other than, in the case of SOMERSBY, their Cheltenham objective. Yards will be written about AL FEROF in the coming days. Objectively, given his level of experience, he put up a meritorious performance. He didn’t prehaps travel as well as he can but he stuck at the task and his jumping largely held together. He’s more of a solid fencer than a spectacular one. His trainer has intimated that the Arkle is the Cheltenham target. It’s hard to make a case for him lining up for the senior event. Regarding the Arkle; typically there are only a handful of genuine contenders come March. The value of AL FEROF’s course form is indisputable and I cannot believe that Ladbrokes’ 7-1 will be around for too much longer for a race where only a few will really count.

Recommended bet: AL FEROF, Arkle ‘Chase at 7-1.

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Categories Horse Racing, National Hunt

Leopardstown Christmas Festival Review

January 8, 2012 //
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Leopardstown’s Christmas Festival without fail delivers top class National Hunt action with numerous pointers for upcoming big races. TOUCH BACK was a good winner of the opening maiden hurdle and it was reported that fortunes were wagered on him to do so. He has been described as the best horse in his trainer’s yard and has a bright future. BLACKSTAIRMOUNTAIN delivered in the grade one novice ‘chase in a manner that he failed to do so on numerous occasions over hurdles. It is possible that he is meeting a lower grade of opposition in the novice ‘chase division but decent ground will always be a requirement for him winning graded races. The 4 year old INH flat race was a keenly contested affair and I had been told before the race that THE MIGHTY MILAN would be competitive. THOMAS EDISON put up a very meritous performance to challenge from rear division and run out a good winner. His stable has taken in a higher grade of performer this season and TED VEALE is another bumper runner to watch out for. 

The bumper run to conclude the second afternoon of racing was no less lively in the betting ring. For the second time in succession OUR VINNIE was well backed against a horse running out of the Champion trainer’s stable. The result was again the same, with OUR VINNIE finishing second but little can be taken away from the winner BALLYCASEY. 

MAKE YOUR MARK was OUR VINNIE‘s conqueror at Punchestown back in November and he was a ready winner of the opening maiden hurdle on day three. He is fantastic looking and moving individual. With any luck he will take high rank amongst next season’s novice ‘chasers. In the meantime he will be competitive in graded novice hurdle events. The three mile grade one novice ‘chase saw LAST INSTALMENT jump best and stay best in winning the race. Few would have been disgruntled with his fencing at Punchestown and the same could have been said on this occasion. ALLE GARDE was very steady in the market beforehand. Having opened up at 7-2 and remained at that price until the off. Clearly the books weren’t looking to give too much away. The better the ground, the better FIRST LIEUTENANT is likely to go. His jockey was unlikely to desert him, as a Cheltenham Festival winner, and was rewarded with his most proficient round of jumping yet. There still remains the doubt that there are others who are more natural fencers. SYNCHRONISED much to my chagrin somehow managed to win the feature ‘chase on the advertised good ground. On soft ground and worse he’s won 7 from 9 but before this meeting he was yet to register a victory on yielding ground and faster from 8 attempts. Had we seen a week’s rain in the leadup he was to have been my bet of the meeting. Going forward he’s an obvious each way contender for the Cheltenham Gold Cup on soft ground especially with his staying capacity but his price now reflects this eventuality. He would probably be a big drifter without rain. RUBI LIGHT was tackling the three miles for the first time and posted a meritous performance. He was fast at some of the fences along the backstraight and dropping back in trip will be of no inconvenience. QUITO DE LA ROQUE was meeting his first defeat in six races but as a relative novice racing in open company for only the second time  he probably posted a personal best here. He remains a contender in any three mile ‘chase on soft ground and is likely to prove a bit of value next time out.

The final day of the meeting saw the weather turn for the worse and the third race in particular was run in terrible conditions. HIDDEN CYCLONE took the beginner’s ‘chase enhancing his career record to 7 wins from 8 races. His only defeat coming in a grade one novice hurdle and then by less than a length. His trainer describes him as the best horse he has trained and looking through the RSA Novice ‘chase betting for Cheltenham, only GRAND CRUS would be likely to receive the same accolade. GRAND CRUS appears to be the key to the betting for the Cheltenham event. He would be a worthy favourite and you would want a long price about any of the other runners so far in advance of the race. He is, however, being considered for a tilt at the Gold Cup and his absence from the novice event would throw the race wide open. The 25-1 about HIDDEN CYCLONE is way too long a price if you were to know that GRAND CRUS would be absent. One way around this quandary is to simultaneously take some of the near 4-1 on GRAND CRUS on the exchanges. He’s a lot shorter than this in most other places. NEAREST THE PIN finished runner-up and he has been well touted as a ‘chaser to follow on better ground. It was noteworthy that he was pitched in with horses that we already knew to be decent. RICK caught my eye before the three mile handicap hurdle. He was dropping down from pattern class and I got the impression he was there to do his best. We were not to know either way as he fell at the fourth after racing keenly. He traded at 33.0 before the race and would merit interest at those odds in a similar contest. The Champion Hurdle horses put on an interesting contest in the final day’s feature. UNACCOMPANIED continued her upward curve and further advertised the strength of last season’s four year old hurdle form. THOUSAND STARS was hemmed in at a critical stage and recovered momentum late on. It is unlikely that positions will be reversed at a future date. OSCARS WELL clearly relished the softer going and put up his best performance of the season so far. The way he was committed early in his dash for home suggests he had come to himself at home. Some progress is still attainable.

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Categories Horse Racing, National Hunt