We are getting to the point in the season where clubs are looking to build momentum going into the deciding phase of the campaign. Every weekend seems to provide a list of intriguing fixtures which are becoming increasingly difficult to call.
Manchester United v. Liverpool
These two sides recently met at Anfield in the F.A. Cup and despite enjoying large periods of possession United did not emerge victorious. Liverpool applied pressure with set pieces early in the game and gradually got themselves back into the contest late on to secure the win. For the middle portion of the contest United were dominant and merited their equalising goal. This game will be largely be determined by how the speedier players on the park perform. There is very little pace at the centre of either defence. Liverpool appeared to be chasing shadows against Tottenham’s midfield on Monday night and it could be a similar story here. It is undoubted that United will enjoy the majority of the possession. They also have the personnel to utilise it in the attacking third of the field. Even so there is a lingering doubt that a well aimed pass over the top will find the likes of Suarez or Bellamy isolated against one of United’s slower defenders. That said, United will spend an awful lot of time probing Liverpool’s flanks and as a result it is hard to see the away side winning this seeing as United are very likely to score. The respective vastly differing conversion rates also support this.
Recommended bet: Back Man. United, draw no bet.
Everton vs. Chelsea
Everton appear to be lifted by the arrival of their new signings and as is traditional at Goodison the midfield has a particularly robust look to it. Landon Donovan has added some much needed guile and they will be hoping that Jelavic will benefit from his input. Chelsea remain an enigma. There are passages throughout games where they play very well, which is hardly a surprise given the quality of the personnel. But more often than not they don’t put the complete performance together. Everton are likely to take the game to Chelsea following the frailties that were on show last Sunday. Ironically this may be to the away side’s advantage. They would like nothing more than to have Sturridge and Torres in a running match against the Everton central defence. The side benefit being that Sturridge will be deployed to pin back the forward advances of Baines. Juan Mata continues to impress without the support he could expect. Had Torres been the goal threat of old, I would have almost fancied Chelsea to win this fixture since the away side could have been good for at least a couple of goals. They would need that sort of cushion seeing as Everton will be keen to test out the newly constructed Chelsea defence. Given the relatively low goal chance conversion rates of both sides, the bookmakers have priced the goal markets up with around 23 chances in mind. With neither side with much reason to hold back it is very possible both teams will score. 5/6 can be considered the right price if the goal chances are shared approximately equally.
Recommended bet: Both teams to score at 5/6 or better.
Tottenham vs. Newcastle
The bookmakers clearly believe that this will be a high scoring affair, probably with a minimum of 24 attempts at goal. Tottenham controlled large parts of the game at Anfield on Monday night and could deprive Newcastle of much of the possession. It will be interesting to see if Newcastle start with just the one up front. If this does not prove to be the case, they will find themselves overmatched in midfield. Spurs are as good as any team in the division in this department. Newcastle’s forward players could find themselves isolated and their defence will be hard pressed to keep the home side at bay. Whether Tottenham attack down the flanks or engage in long range shooting, Newcastle will be wary. In Demba Ba Newcastle clearly have a match winner but it will be a case of them being able to support him effectively whilst not leaving themselves open to the counter attack. The pace of Chelsea’s Sturridge and Drogba was all too much for Newcastle on their home ground before Christmas. There isn’t a great deal of speed in the backline to counter the threat of Bale, Lennon or Defoe. Interestingly, Ladbrokes stand out on their own at 2-1 on the over 3.5 goals which is an accurate reflection of the probabilities if there are to be 24 attempts at goal. The same firm also offer the concession that they will refund selected bets on the game if Ba scores at any time. With two viable chances the concession is around 10-3 to click and around 2-1 if he sees three real chances. Ladbrokes themselves feel he’ll have two and a half!
Sunderland vs. Arsenal
Sunderland’s resurgence has been well reported and Arsenal remain fabulously inconsistent. Sunderland recorded an ultimately convincing 2-0 victory over Swansea not so long ago but it was the Swans who dominated possession and had Sunderland chasing for much of the game. On their day Arsenal are well able to give out a similar lesson but in contrast the Gunners have the firepower to convert possession into goals. Van Persie continues to break records and there’s plenty of pace around to support him. Much of the same can be said of Campbell and Sessegnon who will give the Arsenal defence plenty to think about. The over goals markets suggest that there will be 24 attempts at goal throughout the game and it’s not hard to imagine that Martin O’Neill’s side will push forward early on. They are safely in mid-table and are now looking to advance their position. This will be a game of chances and could literally end up any score.